MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NC...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 120558Z - 120730Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL NC EXTENDING NWD
   INTO SRN VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A
   FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE
   REGION FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE...TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE MAY
   BECOME NECESSARY.
   
   DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
   ONGOING FROM FAR WRN VA SWD ACROSS WRN NC LOCATED AHEAD OF CORRIDOR
   OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F.
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE LINE ARE
   IN THE 5OO TO 750 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE ROANOKE WSR-88D VWP
   SHOWS A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH 50 TO 60 KT OF FLOW AT 1
   KM. THE STRONG FLOW MAY ENABLE THE CONVECTION TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
   GUSTS WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
   ALSO...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE
   250 TO 350 M2/S2 RANGE WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TAKING
   PLACE AS A LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EWD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A
   TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN
   THE LINE.
   
   ..BROYLES/HART.. 04/12/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   35448039 34938003 34807951 34877867 34837844 34917773
               35227704 35787665 36537660 37547736 37897769 37937796
               37897835 37617888 37187915 36707955 36307999 35738034
               35448039