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Mesoscale Discussion 456
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...WRN NC...FAR ERN KY...WRN VA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...

   VALID 282016Z - 282115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 110 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TN AND SE KY WITH THE THREAT MOVING EWD INTO THE
   FAR ERN PART OF WW 110 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
   FROM NEAR THE VA-KY STATE-LINE EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN TN. THIS
   ACTIVITY IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
   1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT JACKSON KY SHOWS 0-6 KM
   SHEAR NEAR 40 KT AND 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 250
   M2/S2. THIS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   CONTINUED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
   TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING
   0-3 KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.5 C/KM IN FAR ERN TN WHICH SHOULD
   BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   37568139 37538255 36298409 35658443 35148424 35248346
               36118167 36778124 37568139 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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