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Mesoscale Discussion 456
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AL AND WRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251910Z - 252045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL AL/WRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER E-CNTRL
   MS HAS RECENTLY MOVED INTO W-CNTRL AL WHILE WEAKENING...MOST LIKELY
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT ATTENDANT TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING. A
   BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF
   COAST IS TEMPERING MORE ROBUST HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH
   TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CONVECTION
   FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS OVERTURNED THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
   AIRMASS AND LESSENED LAPSE RATES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...18Z SOUNDINGS
   FROM BMX AND FFC SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD SUFFICIENT TIME
   TO RECOVER...AS MLCAPE RANGES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL
   AL...TO ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OVER WRN GA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-70 KT
   WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW NOW MAINLY VEERED
   TO THE SW PER 18Z AREA SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VWPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
   APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. RECENT HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY FORM ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL AL
   THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A WW MAY BE ISSUED.

   ..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

   LAT...LON   32318780 32518831 32858829 33518704 33998542 33438474
               32428466 32088503 32118679 32288737 32318780 

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Page last modified: April 25, 2015
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