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Mesoscale Discussion 456
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...FAR NERN OK...FAR SERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 261835Z - 262030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON
   ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A
   FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE
   NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   DISCUSSION...A BROAD ZONE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT PRECEDING A
   LARGE WRN CONUS TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF KS WITHIN THE NEXT
   FEW HRS...PROMOTING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   BY MID-AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS FROM 18Z PLACES A SFC LOW JUST E OF
   GBD...WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE PROTRUDING GENERALLY SWD INTO NWRN
   OK...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NERN KS. WRN
   SEGMENT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER MCS HAS STALLED
   ACROSS E-CNTRL KS...AND WEAK SFC PRESSURE FALLS TO THE N SUGGEST
   THIS BOUNDARY MAY RETREAT NWD. EACH OF THESE FEATURES MAY PROVIDE A
   FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COMBINATION OF
   DIURNAL HEATING AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
   EROSION OF CINH FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

   THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL
   PLAINS...CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL SOON
   AFTER INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS TSTMS MAINTAIN
   DISCRETE OR CLUSTER MODE TYPES. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
   COMPLICATED BY A SUBSTANTIAL MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER
   FLOW AND GRADUAL TEMPORAL BACKING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...AND
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED IN A RELATIVE SENSE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT
   ACROSS CNTRL KS...AND IN VICINITY OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT STRONG SLY COMPONENT TO STORM MOTIONS MAY
   RESULT IN ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTERACTION WITH THESE BOUNDARIES.

   LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND CAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE 19-21Z PERIOD OVER CNTRL KS. A
   SEPARATE AREA OF CONCERN EMANATING OUT OF EXISTING ELEVATED
   CONVECTION ORIGINATING OVER CNTRL OK MAY ALSO EXHIBIT INCREASING
   ASSOCIATED SVR POTENTIAL ACROSS NERN OK AND INTO SERN KS. A TORNADO
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38989853 39669824 40109811 40429700 40509617 39969577
               38899534 38189519 37439540 36669578 36519604 36919707
               37059838 37839851 38989853 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2016
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