Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 457
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 457 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN
   INDIANA...WRN/CNTRL KY....NWRN AND NRN MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 282013Z - 282215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WITH
   ACCOMPANYING ASCENT SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AROUND
   THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS. THIS IS WHERE
   PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION HAS LOCALLY BOOSTED BUOYANCY...AND THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORTS AN INFLUX OF
   WARMER/MOISTER CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP TO THE E OF THIS ACTIVITY...WHERE RESIDUAL STATIC STABILITY
   OWING TO EARLIER CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY STUNT THE OVERALL SVR
   RISK. HOWEVER...HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE S WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD
   NWD AND SUPPORT MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. THE PRESENCE OF 55-80 KT
   OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR PER REGIONAL VWP WILL SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SVR HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE...AND
   LARGE/LOOPING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR
   TORNADOES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES GREATER CONFIDENCE IN WW ISSUANCE AT THIS
   TIME.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   35758713 35858804 36058969 37249026 38128964 38308709
               38018545 37178472 36148503 35718609 35758713 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 28, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities