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Mesoscale Discussion 457
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...

   VALID 251930Z - 252030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 110 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ACROSS SRN
   GA AND NRN FL...GENERALLY FROM TALLAHASSEE FL NEWD TO VALDOSTA GA.
   THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
   HAIL...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED TO
   REPLACE TORNADO WATCH 110...WHICH EXPIRES AT 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL INDICATE
   THAT NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
   EARLIER STORMS THAT HAVE MOSTLY MOVED EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
   THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
   OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT. EVEN
   THROUGH PRIOR CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY REDUCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SOMEWHAT...CURRENT PARAMETERS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY
   BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
   ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS NOW VEERED TO THE WSW AND
   LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE
   TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE LESSENING. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH 20Z...THEN A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL.
   THIS NEW WATCH WOULD REPLACE TORNADO WATCH 110...WHICH EXPIRES AT
   20Z.

   ..GLEASON.. 04/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30198129 30168336 30148490 31208477 31168119 30198129 

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Page last modified: April 25, 2015
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