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Mesoscale Discussion 457
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK...NW AND W-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 261853Z - 262100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...RAPID INITIATION OF TSTMS WILL OCCUR ALONG A DRYLINE FROM
   WRN OK INTO NW AND W-CNTRL TX BY MID-AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE
   HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH
   WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   DISCUSSION...RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY SFC
   DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ IS IN PLACE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK AND NW/W-CNTRL
   TX...E OF A NEARLY STATIONARY AND WAVY DRYLINE POSITIONED FROM ALVA
   OK SSWD TO SWEETWATER TX. ONE-MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
   WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. CINH CONTINUES TO
   ERODE AS SFC TEMPERATURES ARE HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
   80S F. THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT
   ACCOMPANYING AN IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS NM IS SPREADING INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS ATTM. AS THIS INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE...RAPID
   TSTM INITIATION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. 

   VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY TSTMS SOON AFTER INITIATION WITH AN
   EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...AS LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   DATA ESTIMATE MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG E OF THE DRYLINE. DESPITE
   A SUBSTANTIAL MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER WINDS...A
   TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST AND BE MAXIMIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY
   LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN EVOLVE. EVENTUAL
   CONSOLIDATION INTO CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
   INCREASING DMGG WIND THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WELL.

   A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK AND
   NW/W-CNTRL TX IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   36989668 33879642 32069780 31189955 30840023 31050069
               31570087 35169984 36369923 36999865 36989668 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2016
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