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Mesoscale Discussion 459
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN GA...SRN HALF OF SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 252207Z - 252300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL GA WILL SPREAD TOWARDS
   E-CNTRL GA AND SRN SC AFTER 00Z. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
   LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AND A WW WILL BE CONSIDERED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...AIR MASS RECOVERY IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
   CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION ACROSS ERN GA AND SRN SC...WITH TEMPERATURES
   WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S F. MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS
   OCCURRED /MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF
   UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO E-CNTRL GA...WITH CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTING
   THIS WILL OCCUR BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
   WITHIN A W-E BAND ACROSS SERN GA.

   VEERING/WEAK SFC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION IS YIELDING LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING
   50 KT...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH OCCASIONAL CELL
   SPLITS LIKELY. GIVEN THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE...PRIMARY THREATS ARE
   EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   31358146 31948219 32888212 33278210 33548143 33578080
               33468014 33297957 33057935 32178062 31358146 

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Page last modified: April 25, 2015
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