MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CDT FRI APR 12 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC...ERN NC AND SERN VA AND SRN MD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 121834Z - 122030Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO ERN VA HAVE
   UNDERGONE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A FEW STORMS
   MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT
   ANY SEVERE EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR A WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
   HAVE UNDERGONE A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS
   INTO ERN VA IN RESPONSE TO A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY WITH
   TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   HAVE VEERED AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT STRONG SHEAR THROUGH
   THE 0-6 KM LAYER OF 35-45 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT IS THE MARGINAL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DRYING AND
   WARMING IN WAKE OF AN IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH THE NERN STATES IS
   RESULTING IN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR DRY
   ENTRAINMENT WITHIN THE DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS. THESE FACTORS WILL
   PROBABLY CONTINUE TO LIMIT UPDRAFT VIGOR DESPITE A MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS. NEVERTHELESS A FEW OF THE STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING STRONG...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL/KERR.. 04/12/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...CHS...
   
   LAT...LON   33188008 34117956 34887861 35647759 36717688 37567662
               38107629 37837580 35427625 33987851 33027959 33188008