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Mesoscale Discussion 460
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN KY AND ADJACENT NRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

   VALID 252314Z - 260045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE ACCOMPANIED BY...PRIMARILY...A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
   BORDER THROUGH 00-02Z.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
   POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MIDDLE
   AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.

   DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   ELONGATING REMNANTS OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
   INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
   RIVER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE.  AIDED BY WEAK TO
   MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
   40-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GROWING UPSCALE
   INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THE PAST
   FEW HOURS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME
   FRAME...WITH UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
   A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL
   QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   NEAR/NORTH OF JACKSON...WITH RATHER COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
   TO THE NORTH PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIVE LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL.  HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES...INCLUDING THE
   RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
   HAIL...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A CORRIDOR JUST TO THE
   WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR...WHILE STRONG...IS
   LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL.  TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE
   UNCERTAIN...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT RELATIVELY LOW IN
   PROBABILITY.

   ..KERR.. 04/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37818618 37658438 37208344 36618432 36528540 36558669
               36808762 37218790 37428644 37818618 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2015
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