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Mesoscale Discussion 460
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SERN IND...SRN OH...CNTRL/ERN
   KY...AND WV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 262205Z - 270000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WIND THREAT WILL
   CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE
   DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AS OF
   22Z ACROSS THE MCD AREA ALONG AND S OF A SFC COLD FRONT. WEAK
   CONVERGENCE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH MODESTLY
   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AMIDST A
   SUFFICIENTLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO
   500-1500 J/KG. WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG...
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS DO INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 KT BETWEEN 6-8 KM.
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORM
   ORGANIZATION /MAINLY MULTICELLS/...BUT WITH SOME SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS ACROSS
   PARTS OF SERN IND AND SRN OH...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT. FINALLY...AN ONGOING MCS ACROSS SERN IL INTO SWRN IND
   AND WRN KY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD...POSSIBLY REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF
   A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 04/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   39638526 39898356 39908278 39268063 39038013 38458021
               37808134 37558203 37098458 37028651 37518567 38648514
               38948537 39638526 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2016
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