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Mesoscale Discussion 460
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 282055Z - 282300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING ALONG A SFC WIND-SHIFT AXIS
   ORIENTED FROM NERN LA SWWD INTO SERN TX AS ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
   MID-LEVEL JET MAX GLANCES THE AREA. WITH A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG AMIDST AROUND 50 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   POE VWP DATA INDICATE SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ABOVE THE SFC FOR
   A LOW TORNADO RISK...AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER DEEP ASCENT
   RELEGATED TO HIGHER LATITUDES...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER GREATER
   SVR COVERAGE WOULD OCCUR AND WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   30319359 31099344 31479238 30999190 30489211 30139274
               30319359 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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