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Mesoscale Discussion 462
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 260057Z - 260200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A TSTM CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
   EXPECTED TO REACH THE NRN FL PENINSULA BETWEEN 0130-0200Z. A STRONG
   TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THESE
   STORMS...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF TSTMS WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
   ERN GULF OF MEXICO AT AROUND 40 KT...ALONG/S OF AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WRN SHORES OF THE NRN FL
   PENINSULA BETWEEN 0130-0200Z. CURRENT RADAR DEPICTION OF THESE TSTMS
   SUGGEST LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST.
   HOWEVER...MODERATE-STRONG MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW ALONG WITH RICH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA...AND
   COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS IF
   CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN OR INCREASE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
   HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
   LOCALIZED...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   28938083 28628112 28658261 29008296 29268314 29748298
               29818205 29718122 28938083 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2015
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