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Mesoscale Discussion 463
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0610 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL INTO WRN KY

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 109...

   VALID 282310Z - 290045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 109 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN IL THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION MAY BE
   NEEDED AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF WW 109 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN IL MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS LINE FROM
   CHRISTIAN TO ST. CLAIR COUNTIES. A LOCAL AERIAL AND TEMPORAL
   EXTENSION OF WW 109 MAY BE NEEDED AS THE THREAT COULD EXTEND BEYOND
   00Z.

   HERE...AND POINTS SOUTH INTO WRN KY...HAVE DESTABILIZED AHEAD OF THE
   MAIN SFC COLD FRONT. THIS NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE RECOVERY FROM
   EARLIER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING...MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED SOUTHWARD
   DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
   VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA HAS SHOWN SOME SPORADIC CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS SRN IL AND MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SBCAPE APPROACHING 2000
   J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AREA AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
   NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TO THE EAST OF THIS CORRIDOR TOWARD SRN IND AND
   CENTRAL KY...INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES AS ONGOING CONVECTION
   HAS LEAD TO A COOL AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   39958814 39128778 38238736 37548722 36938739 36628797
               36648864 36938905 37568965 38318998 38779010 38969003
               39758999 40419006 41059039 41549051 41769006 41608934
               41008871 40278829 39958814 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2014
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