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Mesoscale Discussion 463
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0555 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX BIG COUNTRY / WRN N-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 109...

   VALID 262255Z - 270000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 109 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS /POSSIBLY IN EXCESS
   OF 65 KT/ WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN N-CNTRL TX AND PUSH EWD INTO N-CNTRL
   TX LATER THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS.  THE LINEAR MODE WILL TEND TO LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH
   THE EXCEPTION BEING AN ISOLD EMBEDDED CIRCULATION/MESOVORTEX AS THE
   QLCS MATURES THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF
   STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS IMPINGING ON THE LEE
   TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER NWRN TX EARLY THIS EVENING.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS
   INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT...AN INTENSIFYING QLCS HAS DEVELOPED
   FROM KNOX COUNTY SSWWD INTO STERLING AND MITCHELL COUNTIES.  IT
   APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE AND
   SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A DISCRETE
   MODE.  AS A RESULT...SEVERE WIND GUSTS /PERHAPS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF
   65 KT WITH THE STRONGER MICROBURSTS/ AND LARGE HAIL --OWING TO STEEP
   H7-H5 LAPSE RATES-- ARE BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS EVENING.

   ..SMITH.. 04/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33559993 33979873 33389805 32149857 31709975 31840105
               32340022 33559993 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2016
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