Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 464
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 464 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0931 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261431Z - 261700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/MOVE INLAND AND
   INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE LATE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
   SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...LARGELY RELATED TO PRIOR DAY CONVECTION/OUTFLOW...AN
   EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND RELATED ZONE OF
   CONFLUENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EXTENDS IN A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION
   ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
   FROM TAMPA BAY SAMPLES THE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT
   EXISTS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHERE MLCAPE IS
   LIKELY TO REACH 1500-2000 J/KG BY MIDDAY AMID WEAKENING BOUNDARY
   LAYER INHIBITION. 

   CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONGOING STRONG STORMS OVER THE FAR
   NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
   AFTERNOON...WHILE STORMS OTHERWISE INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE
   WEST-EAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY
   MATERIALIZE NEAR THE NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL FL COAST WHERE
   CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN VICINITY OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
   REGARDLESS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. WITH STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AIDED BY STRONG
   MID-LEVEL WINDS /30-50 KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM AGL/...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
   EVENTUALLY CLUSTER AS THEY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 04/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29498310 29538198 29448083 28228084 28348297 29218355
               29498310 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 26, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities