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Mesoscale Discussion 464
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0614 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB / SWRN IA / NERN KS / NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 262314Z - 270015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LARGE-HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
   CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TO THE SW OVER NERN KS CASTS
   UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS OVER NERN KS AND SERN NEB WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY BEING LARGE HAIL.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER-DAY MCS
   --CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY-- ARCS NWWD INTO E-CNTRL KS. 
   STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND ATOP THE RESIDUAL COLD
   POOL WITH PROCESSED AIR STILL EMANATING FROM CNTRL MO INTO NWRN MO. 
   YET...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER KS PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF THE LARGE STORM CLUSTER LIKELY RESIDE IN POCKETS OVER NERN KS
   INTO SERN NEB.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS FARTHER E TOWARDS THE
   REGION DURING THE EVENING...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO
   MOVE/DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF NEB/IA/KS/MO LOCATED TO THE
   NE OF THE ONGOING TORNADO WATCH.  AS SUCH...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW
   MUCH AND WIDESPREAD OF A HAIL RISK MAY DEVELOP TO THE NE OF THE
   EXISTING WATCH.  WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE SHORT-TERM TO
   ASSESS THE NEED FOR A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   ..SMITH/GOSS.. 04/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39089514 40409616 41199733 41639671 41149536 39419403
               39089514 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2016
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