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Mesoscale Discussion 464
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0712 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NERN MS...NRN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN AND
   SERN TN

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 108...111...

   VALID 290012Z - 290145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 108...111...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
   THE EVENING FROM SWRN THROUGH ECNTRL MS...CNTRL AND NRN AL INTO
   SCNTRL AND SERN TN. PDS TORNADO WATCH 108 WILL BE REPLACED BY
   ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH /POSSIBLY PDS/ BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF
   02Z AND THE NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FARTHER EAST INTO AL.

   DISCUSSION...BAND OF STORMS INCLUDING NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS PERSIST
   ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS IN VICINITY OF A 50-60 KT SSWLY
   LLJ FROM SWRN MS NEWD THROUGH NRN AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN. WARM SECTOR
   IS VERY LARGE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM MS EWD INTO
   GA...AND HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE ALONG BROAD LLJ AXIS. BIRMINGHAM
   00Z RAOB INDICATED 1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 270 SFC-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
   HELICITY. SOME STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR WITH
   ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND SOME STORMS MAY BEGIN TO TRANSITION
   TO A MORE LINEAR MODE. THIS SUGGESTS OVERALL NUMBER OF TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   PERSISTENT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...THE THREAT FOR STRONG
   TORNADOES COLD PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   WILL ALSO REMAIN LIKELY.

   ..DIAL.. 04/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   35698406 33678709 31708968 31789114 32808985 33908891
               35368771 35698406 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2014
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