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Mesoscale Discussion 465
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1055 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX INCLUDING TX
   BIG COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 261555Z - 261800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
   LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...AND EVENTUALLY REACH PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS COULD
   POSE A HAIL RISK LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE INCREASES THIS
   AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WATCH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
   MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE BANDS OF INITIALLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY SINCE MID-MORNING
   GENERALLY NEAR THE ABILENE AREA AS OF 1530Z. THIS GENERAL INCREASE
   SEEMS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING IMPLIED INCREASING FORCING-FOR-ASCENT IS
   READILY APPARENT INTO WEST TX PER MORNING IR/WV SATELLITE TRENDS. 

   SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE INITIAL RISK LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS
   MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STEADILY STREAM
   NORTHWARD WITHIN A BROADENING MOIST SECTOR...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
   INCREASINGLY CONNECT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE-BASED
   STORMS BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
   ACCORDINGLY...ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD
   ALSO INCREASE.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 04/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   32870056 34709979 33449718 30789792 31759948 32870056 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2015
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