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Mesoscale Discussion 466
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261744Z - 261945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SC. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A SLOWLY SWWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SC SHOULD
   PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPERATURES ALONG AND S OF THIS
   FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF 17Z...WITH
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE SC. AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MLCAPE
   SHOULD INCREASE UP TO 1000-1250 J/KG GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AROUND 6.0-6.5 C/KM. 

   UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT THAT IS ROUGHLY
   PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY PROMOTE INITIAL SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTICELL/BOWING
   STRUCTURES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. AREA RADARS DEPICT ELEVATED
   SHOWERS THAT HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER CHEROKEE COUNTY SC TO THE
   COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH COUPLED WITH A DEEPENING CUMULUS
   FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...MAY SIGNAL THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   REGARDLESS...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY
   ACT TO LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   ..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   32597929 32358068 33408185 34268267 35148236 35148188
               34798085 34227968 33817869 33287863 32597929 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2015
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