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Mesoscale Discussion 467
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN OK AND EXTREME SERN PANHANDLE OF TX.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 261904Z - 262130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTN
   ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WITH WW ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY SFC FRONT FROM SWRN AR WWD
   ACROSS SRN OK...MOVING ERRATICALLY SWD IN SOME AREAS WHILE
   QUASISTATIONARY IN OTHERS.  WITH TIME...AND AWAY FROM MODULATING
   INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS..PRIND SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE FRONT
   WILL EFFECTIVELY SHIFT/REFORM NWD AMIDST STG SFC HEATING IN CORRIDOR
   ALIGNING E-W ACROSS SWRN OK AND INTO SERN PANHANDLE.  THIS PROCESS
   ALREADY IS EVIDENT IN STG THETAE GRADIENT NOW ASSOCIATED WITH
   DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE N OF SFC FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BOUND
   SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS ON N SIDE.  AS AIR MASS BETWEEN
   THAT BOUNDARY AND FRONT CONTINUES TO HEAT DIABATICALLY...WITH SFC
   DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F...EXPECT CINH TO WEAKEN WITH
   MLCAPE RISING INTO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.  EVEN THOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW
   OVER THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY STG DIFLUENCE WITH WEAKER SPEEDS
   THAN FARTHER S AND W...BACKED SFC WINDS HELP TO RENDER FAVORABLE
   DEEP SHEAR.  EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT ARE EXPECTED AMIDST
   EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASING TO 150-300 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTN.  

   SVR THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA LIKELY WILL BE MAINLY HAIL AT
   FIRST...ARISING FROM EITHER IN-SITU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THOSE
   BOUNDARIES AND/OR STORMS MOVING NWD AND NEWD FROM WW 119.  TORNADO
   THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME FOR ANY RELATIVELY
   DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CONVECTION AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOES LIKEWISE. 
   MAIN UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES CONVECTIVE MODE...WHICH MAY GROW
   MESSY/UPSCALE RATHER QUICKLY.

   ..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34019795 34769997 34790050 35170028 35399961 35409867
               35019776 34309746 34029768 34019795 

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