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Mesoscale Discussion 469
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN PANHANDLE OF
   OK.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 262018Z - 262215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ARC
   BETWEEN TAD-AMA..AND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS NARROW CORRIDOR OF
   FAVORABLE INSTABILITY BEFORE WEAKENING.  ACTIVITY MAY LAST LONG
   ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SVR HAIL OR A TORNADO.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED...FOR
   SOME PARTS OF THIS CORRIDOR...PERHAPS AS WWD EXTENSION IN SPACE OF
   WW 120.

   DISCUSSION...NARROW PLUME OF AT LEAST MRGLLY BUOYANT/SFC-BASED
   EFFECTIVE-INFLOW AIR IS EVIDENT BETWEEN ARCHING FRONTAL ZONE THAT
   EXTENDS WNWWD FROM SWRN OK...AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY TO
   ITS N.  PAC COLD FRONT WAS CATCHING UP TO FIRST FRONTAL
   ZONE...PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKING IT FROM NW-SE AND AUGMENTING
   ASSOCIATED LIFT.  50-75-NM-WIDE CHANNEL OF 500-1200 J/KG MLCAPE WAS
   EVIDENT FROM MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THIS CORRIDOR...WITH
   INSOLATION ACTING UPON SIR MASS CONTAINING MID 40S TO LOW 50S. 
   BOUNDARY-ASSOCIATED VORTICITY AND 0-3-KM CAPE MAX MAY BECOME BETTER
   JUXTAPOSED OVER CENTRAL/WRN PANHANDLE AND ERN UNION COUNTY NM AT
   LEAST TEMPORARILY.  50-KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES SHOULD AID IN
   STORM ORGANIZATION...BEFORE MODES GET MESSY AND/OR INSTABILITY
   DECREASES DUE TO COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW...ANVIL SHADING AND EVENTUAL
   EVENING DIABATIC COOLING.

   ..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36940329 36590253 35920164 35040100 34540086 34650156
               35420213 36040302 36710400 36940329 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2015
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