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Mesoscale Discussion 469
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0936 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK / WRN AR / NWRN LA / NERN TX INTO CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 270236Z - 270430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   APPROACHING SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN OK/WRN AR REGION
   AND POINTS SWD INTO THE ARKLATEX AND E-CNTRL TX.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL
   MAY OCCUR WITH MORE INTENSE CELLS ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE.  A FEW
   MESOVORTICES MAY YIELD A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO RISK --MOST LIKELY N OF
   THE RED RIVER.  SOME OF THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE PDS TORNADO WATCH
   MAY BE REPLACED WITH THE UPCOMING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PRIOR TO
   TORNADO WATCH 109 EXPIRATION TIME/LINE PASSAGE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 0230Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE QLCS FROM
   N-CNTRL OK SWD TO THE DFW METROPLEX AND EXTENDING SWWD INTO A LOOSE
   BAND OF CELLS LOCATED BEHIND THE GUST FRONT OVER THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU.  VERY STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OUN AND
   FWD RAOBS /IN EXCESS OF 9 DEG C PER KM/ COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL
   HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRONGLY
   SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE SQUALL LINE INTO ERN OK/WRN AR SWD
   INTO THE ARKLATEX AND E-CNTRL AND CNTRL TX.  ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD OF
   WIND GUSTS 50-75 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO
   ERN OK AND AREAS E OF THE DFW METROPLEX IN A FEW HOURS.  A THREAT
   FOR A FEW MESOVORTICES APPEARS HIGHEST FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER NWD
   INTO ERN OK WHERE THE LINE IS ORIENTED MORE FAVORABLY WITH THE MEAN
   FLOW.  THE SWD TRAILING STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A LOOSE
   AMALGAMATION OF CELLS GENERALLY NEAR AND BEHIND THE GUST FRONT.  IN
   ADDITION TO AN ISOLD-WIND RISK...LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
   STRONGER CORES.

   ..SMITH/GOSS.. 04/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...
   SJT...

   LAT...LON   33729645 36829530 36639404 36039282 32289355 30919541
               30549752 30699978 32609673 33729645 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2016
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