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Mesoscale Discussion 470
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1240 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/SRN MO.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112...

   VALID 270540Z - 270715Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...NRN PART OF EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ATOP
   PROGRESSIVELY LOWER-THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SRN MO.  ISOLATED
   DAMAGING GUSTS...APCHG OR BRIEFLY REACHING SVR LIMITS...STILL ARE
   PSBL ESPECIALLY NEAR AR BORDER.  WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED TO
   ACCOMMODATE THIS THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY DAY
   MCS THAT NOW IS WEAKENING OVER ERN KY...ARCHING FROM NEAR MEM ACROSS
   NRN AR TO BARRY/NEWTON COUNTIES MO.  SQUALL LINE WILL OVERTAKE THIS
   BOUNDARY FROM W-E AT PACE FASTER THAN NWD MOTION OF
   BOUNDARY...EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING MOST UNSTABLE/SFC-BASED INFLOW AIR
   SWD AWAY FROM MO WITH TIME.  FOR NEXT 1-2 HOURS...NARROW/TRIANGULAR
   WEDGE OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IS EVIDENT OVER SWRN MO...AMIDST
   35-40 KT SWLY EFFECTIVE-SHEAR VECTORS...BASED ON MODIFIED MODEL
   SOUNDINGS.  THIS MAY SUPPORT EXTENSION OF WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WITH
   SQUALL LINE ACROSS PARTS OF MO NEAR SGF AND SW TBN...E OF PRESENT
   WW.  HOWEVER...BUOYANCY AVAILABLE TO SQUALL LINE WILL DIMINISH WITH
   EWD EXTENT ACROSS MO OZARKS...AND CINH WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY...WITH
   SFC TEMPS LOW-MID 60S F AND DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F S AND
   E OF TBN IN OUTFLOW AIR.

   ..EDWARDS.. 04/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   38869417 38579311 37939136 37509110 36879096 36539160
               36479313 36509437 38869417 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2016
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