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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105...
VALID 141805Z - 141930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 105 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A COUPLE TORNADOES PERSIST
OVER THE REMAINING PARTS OF WW 105 INCLUDING THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADO THREAT IS SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS SRN HALF
OF THE FL PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL ZONES AROUND OR EAST
OF APALACHICOLA...AND APPEARS TO BE MORE MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT
INLAND.
DISCUSSION...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST TORNADO
THREAT SO FAR HAS BEEN THE INABILITY OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO
ADVANCE INLAND. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS STILL SHOW THE WARM FRONT
OFFSHORE OVER THE NRN GULF. STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
HAVE EXHIBITED OCCASIONAL BOWING STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH COMMA HEAD MOVING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL
PANHANDLE...WHILE DISCRETE SFC BASED STORMS HAVE REMAINED OFFSHORE
NEAR THE FRONT. AS A RESULT THE PRIMARY NEAR TERM THREAT REMAINS
DAMAGING WIND INLAND FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL PERSIST MAINLY ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
..DIAL.. 04/14/2013
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
LAT...LON 29598353 29728511 30138567 30698537 30678395 30318324
29598353
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