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Mesoscale Discussion 470
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 262224Z - 270000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN
   RELATIVELY LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE...IT PROBABLY WILL IMPACT
   SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METRO AREA INTO EARLY
   EVENING WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  FOR THIS REASON...A WW DOES
   APPEAR POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WHICH HAS RECENTLY FORMED HAS
   DONE SO IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY
   MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   CONTENT AND SIZABLE CAPE.  IT IS UNCLEAR IF ACTIVITY IS BEING
   SUPPORTED BY SUBSTANTIVE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION...BUT IT APPEARS NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS...ALONG WHICH
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THERE IS MUCH FURTHER UPSCALE
   CONVECTIVE GROWTH...THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO SUSPECT THAT ONGOING
   ACTIVITY WILL NOT PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...LIKELY
   IMPACTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA
   THROUGH 23-01Z.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE RATHER MODEST IN
   SIZE...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN
   ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29709630 29969549 29999461 29629415 29179484 29029592
               29109624 29379642 29709630 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2015
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