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Mesoscale Discussion 471
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN ALABAMA INTO WRN GEORGIA AND THE
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 115...

   VALID 290901Z - 291030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 115 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS MAY CONTINUE WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS THE
   REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.

   DISCUSSION...THE LARGE ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY BE
   WEAKENING SOME...BUT REMAINS VIGOROUS.  THE LEADING EDGE OF ITS
   ASSOCIATED CONGLOMERATE SURFACE COLD POOL IS GENERALLY PROGRESSING
   EASTWARD IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS ACROSS THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER
   AREA...WHILE ADVANCING MORE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
   MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND ADJACENT FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS. 
   TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MESO LOWS/MCVS ARE
   STILL EVIDENT...WITH OCCASIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF SMALLER SCALE
   MESO VORTICES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL.  

   MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET /WITH WINDS SPEEDS
   STILL ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT/ MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO...AS THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL JET CORE SHIFTS NORTHWARD
   THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
   BRIEF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PROBABLY WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS THE COLD POOL PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE MOIST AXIS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
   TO LOWER 70S F /WHICH AREA SUPPORTING WEAK TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
   INSTABILITY/.

   ..KERR.. 04/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30228872 30418728 31418573 32648554 33098545 34038552
               34458520 34108346 31828403 30678470 29998589 29758862
               30228872 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2014
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