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Mesoscale Discussion 472
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0713 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SWRN AND CNTRL GA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 115...

   VALID 291213Z - 291345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 115 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE TO POSE RISK FOR
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 14-16Z.

   DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
   THAT INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
   FLANK OF THE CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THIS
   BOUNDARY CONTINUES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
   PANHANDLE...TOWARD THE BIG BEND REGION...BUT IT HAS SHIFTED OFF THE
   ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI GULF COASTS...INTO AREAS NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF
   NEW ORLEANS...WHERE IT APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED.

   GENERAL TRENDS ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE /EASTWARD ADVANCING/ PORTION
   OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN FOR CONVECTION TO WEAKEN EAST OF
   THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA BORDER...WITH INFLOW OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE
   STABLE AIR.  VIGOROUS STORMS NOW PROGRESSING INTO AREAS
   NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF ALBANY GA PROBABLY WILL  SIMILARLY WEAKEN BETWEEN
   NOW AND 13-14Z.  

   ACTIVITY NOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY PERSIST A BIT
   LONGER...AIDED BY SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION AND INFLOW OF AIR WITH SIZABLE CAPE.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...AND THE EVOLUTION OF
   ANOTHER FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF STORMS DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF
   THE QUESTION...PERHAPS IMPACTING COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH THE RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS/ ISOLATED
   TORNADOES BY 14-16Z.

   ..KERR.. 04/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29778936 29718750 29968626 30388548 30988463 32368369
               32688338 32068298 30668358 29658440 29178562 28918738
               29208938 29778936 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2014
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