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Mesoscale Discussion 472
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0609 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 262309Z - 270015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WITH A FEW CONTINUING TO BECOME SEVERE MAY
   PERSIST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PRIMARILY SWRN AR...THOUGH PORTIONS
   OF SRN AR AND NRN LA WILL BE MONITORED AS WELL FOR STORM
   DEVELOPMENT.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SHV WSR-88D SINCE AROUND 21Z INDICATED A FEW
   STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN AR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
   THE MID 80S AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTED IN AN
   UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.  THESE STORMS FORMED ALONG A WIND-SHIFT
   BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM SERN OK THROUGH SWRN AR INTO NRN LA. 
   MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KT IS
   MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AS
   HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  AN ELY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS EXPECTED
   TO PERSIST ACROSS AR AND SELY ACROSS LA COMBINED WITH WSWLY
   MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SUSTAIN RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS...
   AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT AREA WSR-88D VWP DATA.  THIS SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO FAVOR SPLITTING STORMS...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

   CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE EXPANDING BEYOND ISOLATED IS LOW AT
   THIS TIME...GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN A FEW STORMS
   PRIMARILY ACROSS SWRN AR INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
   THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARY AND
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...THE 12Z 4-KM NMM
   SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AR
   AND NRN LA.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33959442 34149382 33739229 32669204 32659310 32969393
               33439419 33959442 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2015
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