Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 472
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 472 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0428 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/WRN LA...SE/S-CENTRAL TX.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 113...

   VALID 270928Z - 271100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 113
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...MOST OF WW 113 MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND LINE AND/OR ALLOWED
   TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.  MRGL SVR THREAT MAY STILL EXIST A COUPLE
   HOURS BEYOND INITIAL WW WITH BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS PORTIONS SE
   TX...ACROSS TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR REGION INTO WRN LA.  NEW WW DOES
   NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE AND MRGL NATURE OF
   THREAT...HOWEVER LOCAL EXTENSION IS BEING DONE FOR SOME COUNTIES IN
   PROJECTED PATH OF SE TX CONVECTION.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 915Z...TWO PRIMARY/WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS
   HAVE DISTILLED FROM EARLIER EXTENSIVE QLCS -- ONE APCHG OCH/LFK AND
   ANOTHER APCHG UTS/CXO CORRIDOR.  EACH IS INTERACTING WITH...AND AT
   LEAST PARTLY BEHIND...GUST FRONTS FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY.  SFC
   MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 4-5 MB/2-HR PRESSURE RISES WITH THESE SEGMENTS. 
   PRIND AREA OF 50+ KT INBOUND VELOCITIES APPARENT IN RADAR DATA
   ATOP/ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTAINS CONSIDERABLE HORIZONTAL
   MOMENTUM...BUT THAT COMBINATION OF CONTINUING/PRECONVECTIVE SFC
   DIABATIC COOLING AND GUST-FRONT-INDUCED STABILIZATION FROM EARLIER
   CONVECTION WILL SUBSTANTIALLY MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD
   MOMENTUM TRANSFER.  THIS IS REFLECTED TO SOME EXTENT IN MODIFIED RAP
   SOUNDINGS SHOWING INCREASING MLCINH WITH EWD EXTENT AWAY FROM THIS
   CONVECTION...WITHIN FREE WARM SECTOR.  SRN SEGMENT PRODUCED SUB-SVR
   GUSTS DURING PAST HOUR -- E.G. 43 AND 44 KT AT CLL AND 11R
   RESPECTIVELY AND LESS AT SURROUNDING OBS SITES.  STILL...ISOLATED
   DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE EWD FROM ONGOING BOWING
   SEGMENTS AS LOCALIZED VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS PROPEL STG WINDS THROUGH
   STABLE LAYER TO SFC.

   THOUGH CONVECTION FARTHER W ACROSS S-CENTRAL TX IS WELL BEHIND SFC
   GUST FRONT...ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS STILL IS POSSIBLE.

   ..EDWARDS.. 04/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29299729 30219597 30639595 30909591 30839572 30959524
               31269492 31789491 31669454 31889368 32409329 32139304
               31519299 30819316 30289362 29569559 28929712 28739810
               28769876 28859899 28969909 29049899 29119877 29139845
               29239785 29269753 29299729 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 27, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities