MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0536 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...N-CNTRL/NE OK...FAR W-CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 142236Z - 150030Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
   COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO A MODERATELY WARM AND UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SVR COVERAGE
   BUT A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE LIKELY. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SE
   KS. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA IS MIXED TO AROUND 800 MB /PER RAP
   SOUNDINGS/ AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
   RELATIVELY WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-800 MB IS LIMITING
   INSTABILITY...WITH MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPE AROUND 500 J PER
   KG. THESE INSTABILITY VALUES MAY BE A LITTLE LOW...SINCE 22Z
   RAP-BASED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW DEWPOINT VALUES THAT ARE A
   FEW DEGREES TOO LOW. 18Z LMN SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
   THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS NOT DEPICTED WELL IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.
   
   FARTHER S...SOME TALLER CU HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF WEAK TRIPLE POINT
   NEAR MAJOR COUNTY OK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS
   THIS AREA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND MUCAPE
   AROUND 1000 J PER KG.
   
   GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   AROUND 45 KT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING STRONG WINDS/HAIL EXISTS. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 04/14/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   35909586 35529741 35859847 36279846 37139737 38429622
               38929574 39199485 38999373 38349343 36619451 35909586