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Mesoscale Discussion 473
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0730 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LA.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114...

   VALID 271230Z - 271430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM BEST-
   ORGANIZED PORTION OF QLCS AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL/SRN LA DURING NEXT
   FEW HOURS.  SOME OF QLCS MAY EXIT CURRENT WW CONFIGURATION BEFORE
   15Z...AND ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS LA/MS
   DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE/INSTABILITY TRENDS.

   DISCUSSION...QLCS WAS EVIDENT AT 1215Z NEAR SABINE RIVER FROM TOLEDO
   BEND RESERVOIR SWD PAST BPT AREA..MOVING EWD ROUGHLY 35-40 KT.  MOST
   INTENSE GUST PAST COUPLE HOURS WAS BARELY SUB-SVR 46-KT GUST CLOCKED
   AT BPT AT 1141Z.  GUST FRONT FROM EARLIER/MUCH-WEAKENED VERSION OF
   ORIGINAL SQUALL LINE WAS ANALYZED FROM SERN CORNER OF AR SWWD ACROSS
   ESF/AEX REGION TO VERNON PARISH...WHERE IT WAS BEING INTERCEPTED BY
   NRN PORTION OF QLCS.  GUST FRONT IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL LA BUT SHOULD DECELERATE TO QUASISTATIONARY IMMEDIATELY
   AHEAD OF QLCS AS LATTER FEATURE PROCEEDS EWD THROUGH MIDMORNING
   HOURS.  MOST FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND S OF
   GUST FRONT...WITH SFC MOIST AXIS ANALYZED FROM LCH-TVR-CKM JUST
   AHEAD OF OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES.  TEMPS LOW-MID 70S F AND DEW
   POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THAT AXIS YIELD NEARLY SFC-BASED
   INFLOW PARCELS WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER
   MUCH OF AREA.  12Z LCH RAOB ALSO DEPICTED STG CAP WHICH SHOULD BE
   OVERCOME BY FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...AS WELL
   AS 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
   FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION OF QLCS WITH
   CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND...AND ISOLATED SVR
   GUSTS AOA 50 KT ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN WELL-DEFINED COLD
   POOL AND ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC PERTURBATIONS.

   ..EDWARDS.. 04/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30279383 31379376 32059311 32269118 30339136 29589252
               29759320 29739377 29659382 29669404 29479454 30279383 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2016
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