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Mesoscale Discussion 473
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1013 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291513Z - 291615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL PERSIST EWD ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO
   NRN FL AND ADJACENT SRN GA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS BECOMING CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL.  WFO TALLAHASSEE HAS
   EXTENDED PART OF WW 115 UNTIL 16Z.

   DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN MCS WAS GENERALLY WEAKENING PER
   TRENDS IN WDSS-II CAPPI DATA AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD THROUGH
   SOUTH CENTRAL GA...ERN FL PANHANDLE TO OFFSHORE OF GULF COUNTY FL. 
   THE EXCEPTIONS EXIST WITH 1/ A STORM THAT HAS SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY ACROSS WRN JEFFERSON COUNTY FL...AND 2/ A SHORT-TERM
   SEVERE RISK AS STORMS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF INTERACT WITH THE
   SSEWD MOVING MCS CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH GULF...FRANKLIN AND LIBERTY
   COUNTIES FL.  THESE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVE STORM AREAS ARE LOCATED
   WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR OF 35 KT NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY WITH VALUES AROUND 45 KT
   FURTHER SWWD INVOF THE ERN FL PANHANDLE GULF COAST.

   MEANWHILE...THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE LARGE MCS WAS
   DESTABILIZING ACROSS NRN FL AND ADJACENT SRN GA...GIVEN SURFACE
   HEATING PER LESS CLOUDINESS OBSERVED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY.  ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE...A DECREASE IN BULK SHEAR WITH ERN EXTENT TODAY SUGGESTS
   THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD BE
   LOW.  THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE
   PRIMARY THREAT.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29488629 29928588 30028517 30448435 31188387 31458336
               31398295 31228220 30278217 29608314 29458426 29208518
               29268568 29188618 29488629 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2014
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