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Mesoscale Discussion 474
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...WRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271834Z - 272100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN AL AND
   WRN AL THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WW ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO BE
   CONSIDERED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM SRN MS NWD ACROSS ERN MS INTO WRN TN...ALONG
   WHICH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. SFC TEMPS ACROSS ERN MS
   AND WRN AL HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 80 F THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED TO
   BE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE FROM COLUMBUS MS SWD TO THE GULF
   COAST. AS INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE
   ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KTS...A FEW DAMAGING WET
   DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30418750 30108842 30028937 30938969 32678968 33708986
               34298971 34488863 33758791 31878732 30418750 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2016
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