MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0544 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL SPACE COAST TO THE FL BIG BEND
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106...
   
   VALID 142244Z - 150015Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING
   THE EARLY EVENING WITH A CLUSTER OF QUASI-DISCRETE STORMS OVER
   PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL FL AND WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD FROM THE FL
   BIG BEND VICINITY.
   
   DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED WARM FRONT FROM
   DAB TO 15 MI WSW CTY WITH THE EAST SEA BREEZE FRONT APPROXIMATELY 50
   MI INLAND.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THESE
   BOUNDARIES AND AT THEIR INTERSECTION...SERVING AS PREFERRED STORM
   EMBRYO LOCATIONS.  WEAK SUPERCELLS EXHIBITING WEAK LOW LEVEL
   ROTATION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER INTERIOR
   PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL FL.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO
   POSE AT LEAST ISOLD DMGG WIND POTENTIAL AND A MARGINAL TORNADO
   THREAT.  
   
   FARTHER W...40 KT EWD MOTION OF A MATURE SQUALL LINE AND WEAK
   CYCLONIC SHEAR IN THE FORM OF WEAK MESOVORTICES COULD POSE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE.  A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   WITH THE SQUALL LINE INVOF THE DECAYING WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE IN
   AREAS FARTHER N TOWARDS THE FL/GA BORDER HAS HINDERED SURFACE-BASED
   DESTABILIZATION WITH ISOLD DMGG WIND POTENTIAL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/14/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   28508179 29378222 29648375 30248337 29748163 28498048
               28508179