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Mesoscale Discussion 474
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...NE IL...LAKE MI...LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291647Z - 291815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NE IL. THE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP
   NNEWD INTO SE WI...LAKE MICHIGAN AND SW LOWER MI. HAIL AND STRONG
   GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996 MB LOW OVER SE IA
   WITH A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS FAR NRN IL INTO
   SRN LOWER MI. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON THE
   NWRN EDGE OF A POCKET OF INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
   SBCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. COLD AIR ALOFT /500 MB TEMP OF -20 TO
   -22C/ ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID TO UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL
   THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH MAY
   ENABLE THE STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
   AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS STORMS INTERACT
   WITH THE BOUNDARY.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

   LAT...LON   41658769 41798812 42468842 43208830 43498801 43708692
               43428553 42408530 41788621 41658769 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2014
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