MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 140747Z - 140915Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
   TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL...MAY STEADILY INCREASE
   THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FL
   PENINSULA. MONITORING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH.
   
   EXTENSIVE/LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF
   COAST REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
   IMPLIES A NUMBER OF STRONGER CORES WITHIN THE BROADER MCS AS CLOSE
   AS 60-120 MILES OFF THE FL WEST COAST...WITH OTHER MORE RECENT
   DEVELOPMENT NEARING THE FL WEST COAST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. ALTHOUGH
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS COOLED/DRIED IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHALLOW
   OUTFLOW...INFLUX OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE ADJACENT GULF WOULD
   SUPPORT AN INCREASING SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT. WITH A GENERAL
   SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WSR-88D
   VWP DATA FROM TAMPA BAY/TALLAHASSEE IMPLY RATHER FAVORABLE WIND
   PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/BOWS. WILL
   CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/14/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   28978319 29808310 28598179 27698262 28978319