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Mesoscale Discussion 475
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0929 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TEXAS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...

   VALID 270229Z - 270400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 121 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE WITH AN EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE
   DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX BETWEEN 03-05Z.  A DISCRETE SUPERCELL
   MAY ALSO PERSIST WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES...MAINLY
   SOUTHWEST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX.

   DISCUSSION...INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED
   DISCRETE SUPERCELL OR TWO...PERSISTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
   THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...AIDED BY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSE MID-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
   SHIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   APPEARS TO BE STRONG WITHIN A ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE ONGOING
   CONVECTION EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE METROPLEX.  THIS MAY PROVIDE
   SUPPORT FOR FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH...AND THE FOCUS FOR
   EASTWARD ACCELERATION AS THIS OCCURS.

   GIVEN THE SIZABLE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE DEW POINT
   SPREADS EVIDENT IN THE 27/00Z FTW RAOB...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING
   AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THIS WILL BE ENHANCED
   FURTHER BY THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT....ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR
   SURFACE EASTERLIES VEERING TO STRONG WESTERLIES AT MID/UPPER LEVELS.


   IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LONGER THE DISCRETE SUPERCELL...NOW EAST OF
   STEPHENVILLE...WILL PERSIST.  BUT IT CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY TO
   GENERALLY PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BULK OF THE
   METROPLEX...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE.

   ..KERR.. 04/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33059769 33209714 33189613 32739574 32299589 32119652
               32059728 32339787 32719792 33059769 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2015
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