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Mesoscale Discussion 475
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST AND PART OF NORTHERN
   MO/SOUTHERN IA AND A SMALL PART OF EASTERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271858Z - 272100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONE OR MORE BROKEN LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   AND INCREASE SOME IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KS AND
   FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHWEST MO...AND SPREADING INTO MUCH OF THE
   REST OF NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN IA...AND EASTERN NEB.  SEVERE-CALIBER
   HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. 
   THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST ACROSS
   SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHEAST MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 994-MB LOW
   PRESSURE AREA IN EASTERN NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE
   SOUTHEAST THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWEST IA INTO NORTHEAST MO AND
   SOUTHERN IL...WHILE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
   SOUTHEAST NEB AND EASTERN NEB.  A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO THE
   SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL KS AND CENTRAL OK.

   MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST KS
   AND EAST-CENTRAL NEB ALONG THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT AND THE
   INTERSECTION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE...RESPECTIVELY.  COLD
   MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ARE SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
   MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE CORRIDOR EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH
   THE WARM SECTOR.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS STRENGTHENED TO SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORMS...WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST
   IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...ENHANCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 04/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   41629620 41649539 41259329 40859228 40089243 39429382
               39209447 39139547 39779559 40289575 40879644 41069658
               41439665 41629620 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2016
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