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Mesoscale Discussion 476
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0476
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO
   FAR WESTERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 270549Z - 270715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
   NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME HAIL
   POSSIBLE AS WELL. ONE OR MORE ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX...EARLY SEMI-DISCRETE TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A MORE COMPLEX
   CIRCULATION-EMBEDDED/UPSCALE-GROWING ASYMMETRIC BOW ECHO WITH AID OF
   INCREASING REAR-INFLOW/SMALL COLD POOL...NEARING THE I-45 VICINITY
   INCLUDING CORSICANA/ENNIS AREAS AS OF 0530Z/1230AM CDT. A FEW
   TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT CONCERN WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...A MORE EXTENSIVE SQUALL
   LINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY WEST OF I-35 ROUGHLY FROM THE SAN ANTONIO
   AREA NORTHEASTWARD TO TEMPLE/WACO. 

   ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IS QUITE STRONG AND THE AIR
   MASS TO THE EAST OF AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING INTENSE CONVECTION IS
   MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
   70S F. MOIST/MODERATELY STRONG EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL STORM
   RELATIVE INFLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT SUSTENANCE OF
   INCREASINGLY QUASI-LINEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ADDITIONAL
   FORWARD PROPAGATION-RELATED ACCELERATION LIKELY. DAMAGING WINDS AND
   A FEW TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE RELATIVELY
   HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES POTENTIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX NEAR/EAST OF I-45 IN VICINITY OF A WNW-ESE
   FRONT.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31839645 32489643 32709526 32229385 30859359 29419528
               28469718 28989930 30039774 31439670 31839645 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2015
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