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Mesoscale Discussion 476
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0476
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SW KY...WRN TN...FAR NE MS...NW AND NCNTRL AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 272028Z - 272230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
   WRN TN EXTENDING SWD INTO NW AND NCNTRL AL. WW ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO
   BE CONSIDERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM NRN MS NWD ACROSS FAR WRN TN INTO FAR WRN
   KY. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE
   MOIST CORRIDOR AND IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND...A
   THERMAL AXIS IS LOCATED FROM NCNTRL AL NWD INTO WCNTRL TN WHERE SFC
   TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S F. IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...A
   POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS WRN TN AND WRN KY
   WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN
   ADDITION...THE WSR-88 VWP AT MEMPHIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KT
   WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. SFC OBS SHOW THIS
   VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING EWD INTO MIDDLE TN. THIS ALONG
   WITH SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS APPROACHING 25 DEGREES F MAY BE
   ENOUGH TO AID DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36288925 34778838 33398779 33488689 34468649 36198703
               36828780 36878867 36288925 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2016
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