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Mesoscale Discussion 477
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0477
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270842Z - 271015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN OK.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
   UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT IS TRANSITIONING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST
   TX/WESTERN OK OVERNIGHT...WITH A RELATED MODEST INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED
   BUOYANCY IS ESTIMATED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK /LIKELY NOT MUCH MORE
   THAN 500 J PER KG MUCAPE/...HOWEVER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP
   IN RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE...AND STRONG SHEAR
   THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER COULD HELP SUSTAIN SOME STRONGER
   ELEVATED UPDRAFTS. NEAR-SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED
   THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33510031 34300001 34709767 34259636 33549656 32739778
               33510031 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2015
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