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Mesoscale Discussion 477
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0477
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0534 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA...MISSOURI...AND WESTERN
   IL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 116...

   VALID 272234Z - 280030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 116 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND A FEW
   TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING TOWARDS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
   WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG/SEVERE STORM
   OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   MISSOURI...BUT RELATIVELY SPARSE COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   INDICATE A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM FAR EASTERN
   NEB...THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO...AND THEN
   ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL IL. THE FRONT HAS SHOWN ONLY SOME GRADUAL
   NORTHWARD PROGRESS...AND SUPER-RAPID SCAN IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
   INDICATE STABLE WAVE CLOUD STRUCTURES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MO AND
   WEST-CENTRAL IL. THE ONGOING TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO
   AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE STRUCTURES...WITH SOME LOCALIZED
   UPTICK NEAR THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL BACKING OF WINDS IS
   ENHANCED. INDEED...FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH MAY FAIL TO
   REALIZE ANY TORNADIC POTENTIAL...AS A LEADING STRATIFORM REGION
   MAINTAINS COOL/STABLE AIR HERE...REINFORCING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE
   SOUTH. OVER TIME...CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH MAY ALLOW LINE SEGMENTS
   TO PROGRESS FARTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING...OUTSIDE EAST/NORTHEAST
   SECTIONS OF THE WATCH. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT MAY DIMINISH SOME
   /AND ENTIRELY IF CONVECTIVE MOVEMENT TAKES THE CELLS NORTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY/...SOME WIND AND HAIL THREAT MAY BE MAINTAINED...AND A NEW
   WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED.

   FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI...AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO WILL
   BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...DUE TO CONSIDERABLE
   BUOYANCY WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/ORGANIZATION. NONETHELESS...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTWARD-PROGRESSING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD
   REMAIN SPARSE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..PICCA.. 04/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40689500 41419524 41489362 40429071 40139009 38659010
               37539014 36639053 36559212 38439301 38979399 40689500 

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