Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 478
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 478 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL ILLINOIS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 280059Z - 280230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES...AND
   PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE
   NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE FORMED DURING THE
   PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL
   ILLINOIS HAVE EXHIBITED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  DESPITE THE RATHER
   MODEST STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS...SHEAR/BAROCLINICITY
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE AUGMENTED LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT
   ROTATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES.  THIS POTENTIAL IS
   PROBABLY CONFINED TO A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE
   FRONT...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ARE
   MAXIMIZED.  SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW CONTINUES TO AID THE
   GRADUAL PROPAGATION OF STORMS ACROSS THE FRONT INTO MUCH COOLER AND
   MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHERE TORNADIC POTENTIAL SHOULD
   DIMINISH.  AT THE SAME TIME...THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
   AND STABILIZATION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
   DIMINISH POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS ADDITIONAL NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT 
   THROUGH THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME.

   ..KERR/HART.. 04/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39778952 39578891 38918786 38618779 38458804 38708874
               39628980 39778952 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 28, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities