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Mesoscale Discussion 478
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE KY...WV...SE OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291958Z - 292130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS WRN WV. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING NWD FROM WRN VA NWD INTO ERN OH ALONG WHICH THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE DEVELOPING. THE AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK INSTABILITY
   WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. IN SPITE OF THIS...DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 70 TO 95
   KT MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
   FACTOR COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH
   FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS CELLS MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM THE
   BOUNDARY. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...

   LAT...LON   37578095 37548210 37978311 38838308 39618153 39758079
               39518033 38528035 37578095 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2014
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