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Mesoscale Discussion 478
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0456 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN/SOUTHERN
   LA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...

   VALID 270956Z - 271200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 125 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO/SOME HAIL POTENTIAL
   WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST TX/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN INTO
   WESTERN/SOUTHERN LA THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS. TORNADO
   WATCH 125 CONTINUES UNTIL 14Z. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   ACROSS LA EARLY THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER QUASI-SEPARATE SQUALL LINES/BOW ECHOS OVER
   NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX HAVE ESSENTIALLY MERGED AND
   UNIFIED INTO A SEMI-SINGULAR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE
   WITH EMBEDDED BOWS/MESOVORTICES ACROSS EAST TX/UPPER TX COASTAL
   PLAIN AS OF 0945Z/0445AM CDT. A 54 KT MEASURED WIND GUST WAS
   RECENTLY /0935Z/ NOTED AT CONROE /KCXO/. SEVERE-CALIBER DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH THE
   POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES VIA EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS/MESOVORTICES AMID
   RELATIVELY STRONG EFFECTIVE SRH.

   AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...LOW-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW APPEARS
   TO HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...RELATED TO NEAR-SURFACE
   EASTERLIES AND A BACKING/SOMEWHAT STRENGTHENING TREND OF 20-30 KT
   SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2 KM AGL ACROSS WESTERN LA AS PER
   WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM FT POLK/LAKE CHARLES. FACTORS SUCH AS
   THIS...ALONG WITH A PROBABLE SYSTEM-TRAILING MCV AND
   MOIST/RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR/SOUTHWEST A WNW-ESE
   FRONT...ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SUSTENANCE OF A
   STRONG/SEVERE SQUALL LINE INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN LA THROUGH AT LEAST
   MID-MORNING.

   ..GUYER.. 04/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   32019506 32369437 32119306 30479132 29519173 29619404
               29299498 29629577 30319545 32019506 

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