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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 154...
VALID 141555Z - 141645Z
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 154 CONTINUES.
A SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF WW 154 AS STORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. A TORNADO ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION INTENSIFIES. THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
A BOWING MCS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE SERN PART OF WW 154 HAS LAID
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SCNTRL FL LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. CONVECTION IS INITIATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WHERE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS AND THE RUC INDICATES
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
CURRENTLY WEAK...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVES INTO SCNTRL FL. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND THE MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SFC-BASED STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A
SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE MCD AREA.
..BROYLES.. 04/14/2009
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 26548002 26248090 26168164 26668213 27198245 27588202
28048045 26548002
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