MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1055 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 154...
   
   VALID 141555Z - 141645Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR WORDING
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 154 CONTINUES.
   
   A SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF WW 154 AS STORMS INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE. A TORNADO ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION INTENSIFIES. THE
   AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT
   POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   A BOWING MCS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE SERN PART OF WW 154 HAS LAID
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SCNTRL FL LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE
   OKEECHOBEE. CONVECTION IS INITIATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
   WHERE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS AND THE RUC INDICATES
   MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
   CURRENTLY WEAK...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
   NORTH TO SOUTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   MOVES INTO SCNTRL FL. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...MODERATE
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND THE MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR SFC-BASED STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IN
   ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON
   WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A
   SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE MCD AREA.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/14/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   LAT...LON   26548002 26248090 26168164 26668213 27198245 27588202
               28048045 26548002