MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0859 PM CDT MON APR 15 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE OK...FAR SE KS...CNTRL/SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 160159Z - 160300Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ELEVATED TSTMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...ARE
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...VAD PROFILES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
   REVEAL AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. SGF HAS INCREASED FROM 25 TO 40
   KT AT 2 KFT DURING THE LAST TWO HOURS. THIS INCREASING TREND IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...FAVORING ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IL SWWD ACROSS SRN MO AND CNTRL OK AND
   INTO NW TX. 00Z SGF SOUNDING SHOWS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
   1900 J PER KG OF MUCAPE. 00Z ILX SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS SOME ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS FARTHER SW. 
   THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IN TANDEM WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ABOVE
   50 KT AND THE INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
   HAIL PRODUCTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL MO. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.
   
   ..MOSIER/GOSS.. 04/16/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   36469587 37879525 39059410 39349303 39299151 39059062
               38609004 38148988 37369047 36399316 36229456 36199550
               36469587