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Mesoscale Discussion 480
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GULF COAST

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 280856Z - 281100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH STORM COVERAGE POTENTIALLY BECOMING
   WIDELY SCATTERED FROM SOUTHEAST LA TO THE WEST FL PANHANDLE.

   DISCUSSION...MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA IS SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN
   CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA INTO SOUTHWEST AL. UPSTREAM AIR MASS
   IS CHARACTERIZED BY 70-75 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER SOUTHEAST LA
   AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. 00Z LCH/LIX RAOBS SAMPLED STEEP 700-500 MB
   LAPSE OF 7-7.5 DEG C/KM. WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES PERSISTING WITHIN
   THIS LAYER PER LIX VWP DATA...IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS PERIPHERY OF
   THE EML HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
   WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VEERING OF THE WIND
   PROFILE WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED UPDRAFT ROTATION
   WHICH COULD FOSTER A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MID-MORNING.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 04/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30249149 30689085 31118932 31348825 31378749 31198674
               30998642 30698635 30538641 30268734 30048890 29638990
               29719133 29959175 30249149 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2016
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