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Mesoscale Discussion 480
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NC

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 117...

   VALID 292038Z - 292215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 117 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WW 117 THROUGH
   EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
   WELL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE NERN THIRD OF
   THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT MOVING NWD
   ACROSS ERN NC JUST TO THE EAST OF RALEIGH.  THE STORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER
   70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D
   VWP AT RALEIGH SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   FROM THE SFC TO 3 KM. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE 0-3 STORM RELATIVE
   HELICITY OF 375 M2/S2. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
   THIS THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS DUE TO THE
   FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL.
   WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR AND SHOULD BE ENHANCED NEAR SHORT-LINE
   SEGMENTS.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34567629 34177811 34657910 35337928 36257800 36487656
               36247559 35247529 34567629 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2014
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