Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 481
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 481 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0481
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1002 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS AND BARRIER ISLANDS OF SOUTHEAST
   LA...SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHWEST AL AND PART OF THE FAR WESTERN FL
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281502Z - 281730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS AND/OR A TORNADO AND
   LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN VICINITY TO
   OFFSHORE OF COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHWEST
   AL AND PERHAPS PARTS OF THE FAR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.  LOCALIZED
   SPATIAL THREAT CURRENTLY PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO
   WATCH...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...THE MERGING OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE PRODUCED BY NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
   SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A BACK-BUILDING MCS NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION OF SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL.  THESE
   STORM-SCALE BOUNDARY MERGERS WILL BE OF GREATEST CONCERN IN THE
   SHORT-TERM AS THEY RESULT IN AN ENHANCED KINEMATIC /STRONGER SRH/
   ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.  THIS HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
   MOB WSR-88D IMAGERY WITH A ROTATIONAL COUPLET LOCATED 20-25 SOUTH OF
   KPQL.  MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE LEADING EXTENT OF THE
   CONVECTIVE COLD POOL EXTENDED FROM EXTREME SOUTHWEST AL TO OFFSHORE
   AND SOUTH OF THE AL/MS BARRIER ISLANDS...AND THEN WNWWD INTO
   SOUTHEAST LA IN ST TAMMANY PARISH.

   THE ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION IS QUITE MOIST AS SAMPLED BY THE LIX
   12Z SOUNDING /PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.9 INCHES/...AND WITHIN A
   CORRIDOR OF PW RANGING FROM 1.6-1.8+ INCHES FROM SOUTH OF LA INTO
   SOUTHERN AL.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A
   SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON...A CONTINUED MOIST/UNSTABLE
   INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS MCS SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
   PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  THIS WILL BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY
   THIS REGION LOCATED BENEATH DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME ALOFT AND 30-40 KT
   OF WLY 500-MB WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA...MAINTAINING
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 04/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30519021 30548919 30578853 30618792 30598727 30368689
               29958710 29788764 29678838 29588889 29588927 29748956
               29958995 30219019 30519021 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 28, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities