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Mesoscale Discussion 481
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0481
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 292058Z - 292230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT MAY OCCUR
   TOWARDS THE EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A
   ZONE OF APPRECIABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE N OF THE WRN EXTENSION
   OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER MCS.  THE CONTINUED
   GENERATION OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR INCIPIENT OUTFLOW OVER SRN MS
   AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF MS/AL IS LIKELY HINDERING THE SLOW NEWD
   ADVANCE OF MOISTURE RICH MARITIME AIR OVER SERN LA.  A VEERING
   LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND ITS FORECAST STRENGTHENING TOWARDS THE
   EVENING HOURS WILL INCREASE SHEAR.  IF/ONCE STORMS CAN TRANSITION
   FROM ELEVATED AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS THE OUTFLOW ATTEMPTS TO
   ADVANCE NEWD...SOME INCREASE IN A SEVERE THREAT CAN BE EXPECTED. 
   OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON
   REGARDING THIS CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30258735 31848831 31838713 31578645 30268639 30258735 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2014
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