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Mesoscale Discussion 482
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GA INTO SOUTHERN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281827Z - 282100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM
   THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   GA INTO SOUTHERN SC.

   DISCUSSION...SIMILAR TO STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED IN SOUTHWEST
   GA...THE SHORT/ARCED BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM EMANUEL TO JEFF
   DAVIS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GA APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG
   EASTWARD-MOVING GRAVITY WAVES...WHICH EMANATED FROM THE MCS LOCATED
   ACROSS AND OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  THE SOUTHEAST BAND
   OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO A DESTABILIZED
   ENVIRONMENT...WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS SUPPORTING STEEPENING
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS COMBINED WITH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE THUS FAR UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. 
   ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...DEEP
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW FIELD WILL MAINTAIN EASTWARD MOVEMENT
   INTO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
   SHORT-TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR DO NOT PROVIDE CLEAR GUIDANCE
   WITH THE TIMING...INTENSITY...AND/OR COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN GA TO SOUTHERN SC TODAY.  HOWEVER...BASED ON
   THE OBSERVED AFOREMENTIONED DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH NO NEED FOR
   WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 04/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   32808135 32938091 32558048 31878117 31338162 31378232
               31618297 32118255 32478245 32588220 32808135 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2016
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