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Mesoscale Discussion 482
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0108 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271808Z - 271945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS LA
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY EXTEND BACK INTO SE TX LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING
   ACROSS SW AND CNTRL LA TO THE NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING
   SWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
   MUCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 500 J/KG TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
   WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM. IN ADDITION...THE POE
   WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 50 TO 55 KT OF FLOW AT 5 KM THAT IS CONTRIBUTING
   TO SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   WITH CELLS THAT CAN ROTATE. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS INCLUDING THE
   HRRR MOVE THIS CONVECTION NEWD ACROSS CNTRL LA OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL COULD CONTINUE WITH CELLS THAT MOVE INTO
   SW MS. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT CELLS WILL
   PROBABLY INITIATE IN THE HOUSTON AREA ON THE ERN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF
   INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG
   RANGE. THIS CONVECTION COULD BE CLOSER TO BEING SFC-BASED AND A
   POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
   DEVELOP THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 04/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30069262 29479430 29469494 29799531 30369559 30869550
               31119516 31369467 31929263 31479177 30709167 30069262 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2015
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