MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1004 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 261504Z - 261700Z
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS
   OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH 18-20Z.  SEVERE POTENTIAL
   APPEARS LOW...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
   
   BENEATH A GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW...A RATHER WARM ELEVATED MIXED
   LAYER HAS ADVECTED EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/MEXICAN PLATEAU
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS AIR MASS EXTENDS AS FAR
   NORTH/EAST AS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...WHERE STEEPER LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FOCUSED...AND WEAKER INHIBITION IS
   ALLOWING LIFTED PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION.  
   
   LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE RETURN...RELATIVE TO WARMTH ALOFT...IS STILL
   LIMITED.  AND...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS IS RESTRICTING MOST
   UNSTABLE CAPE TO VALUES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG.  SOME INCREASE IN
   MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   APPROACH OF A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...NOW
   SHIFTING THROUGH THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION...COULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO A FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
   BUT...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION
   EXPECTED...UNTIL PERHAPS INHIBITION WEAKENS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
   PARCELS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS
   SOUTHERN MISSOURI AFTER 20-21Z...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN LOW.  HOWEVER...WEAK TO MODERATE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR
   COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
   NEAR...OR POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN EXCESS OF...SEVERE LIMITS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/26/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...
   
   38449415 39119377 39189223 38769102 38169024 37269000
   36519046 36349235 36719356 37429385 37929432