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Mesoscale Discussion 483
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IND/SOUTHWEST OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 281953Z - 282130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...BRIEF...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL THREAT CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
   A SIMILAR THREAT TO OCCUR WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO SOUTHWEST
   OH.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...WITH POTENTIAL NEED FOR A
   WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW STORMS HAD
   DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL INDIANA NEAR AND EAST OF A SURFACE LOW AND
   ALONG AND NORTH OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST EXTENDING SURFACE BOUNDARY. 
   WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A LOBE OF ASCENT MOVING ACROSS THIS
   PORTION OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME...AS SUGGESTED BY THE
   12Z ECMWF WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
   THIS AREA.  

   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED 0-3-KM CAPE OF 150 TO NEAR 200 J/KG ACROSS
   THE DISCUSSION AREA CO-LOCATED WITH NEAR-SURFACE VERTICAL VORTICITY
   THAT CAN SUPPORT TORNADO FORMATION.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40
   KT SUGGESTS MULTICELLS AND/OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...BUT WEAK MLCAPE MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE
   THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 04/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...

   LAT...LON   40178634 40198558 39918444 39858415 39638335 39258354
               39148427 39208502 39328557 39678608 40008648 40178634 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2016
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