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Mesoscale Discussion 483
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 272029Z - 272200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS CNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS CELLS INITIATE AND INTENSIFY. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE
   POSSIBLE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM JUST
   EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TX EXTENDING SWD TO JUST EAST OF BROWNWOOD. A
   MOIST AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR VICTORIA NWD ALONG A CORRIDOR JUST TO
   THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPE IN THE
   1000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET
   IS LOCATED IN CNTRL TX WHICH IS CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. AS CELLS CONTINUE TO
   INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT...THE INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
   LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT...LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
   GRADUALLY EXPAND SWD INTO THE AUSTIN AND COLLEGE STATION AREAS LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 04/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   32219809 32569779 32659731 32559676 32339646 31619605
               31149581 30679576 30279587 29769623 29619711 29759747
               30159776 30779799 31669815 32219809 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2015
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