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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161910Z - 162045Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
AS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TAKES PLACE ACROSS SERN CO DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN SPREADS NWD INTO E CENTRAL CO.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM E OF THE FRONT RANGE. AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A WW.
18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING INVOF OF TAD...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE...AND A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NWD
ALONG/JUST E OF THE FRONT RANGE. PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NERN
CO IS RESULTING IN A BARRIER JET TYPE FEATURE...WHICH IS ACTING TO
REINFORCE/STRENGTHEN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
AIRMASS OVER ERN CO IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPR
60S OVER SERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...AND LOW 50S TOWARD THE NORTH
WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MORE WIDESPREAD. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
OVER SRN-SERN CO COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH
THE APPROACH OF NM S/W TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION/CAP REMOVAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY MID
AFTERNOON OVER SRN PORTION OF MCD.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RESIDE IN THE LOW-MID 40S...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTENING POSSIBLE AS UPR 40S DEWPOINTS OVER WRN KS
ATTEMPT TO MOVE W. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES /AOA 7-8 C PER KM/ WILL SUPPORT 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KM/S ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR
DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO SOME ENLARGEMENT IN LOW LVL HODOGRAPH
STRUCTURE. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LVL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING BOTH SUPERCELLS AND FAST MOVING
LINE SEGMENTS. THESE STORMS WILL POSE MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH STRENGTHENING LOW LVL WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON /AND LOCALIZED BACKING OVER NERN CO...ALONG AND N OF A COS
TO ITR LINE/ SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..GARNER.. 04/16/2009
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38830212 38210207 37370204 37060250 37150330 37480377
38020414 39110456 40270412 40750342 39730254 38830212
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