MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0148 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MO INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SE
   KS/NE OK/NW AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 261848Z - 262115Z
   
   IT STILL SEEMS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
   NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WW ISSUANCE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON.  BUT...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
   EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION CONTINUES TO
   PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
   MISSOURI OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY REGION.  RECENT TIGHTENING OF
   THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SOUTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY THROUGH
   THE ROLLA/VICHY AREA HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS. 
   AND...THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL SPREAD ACROSS/EAST OF COLUMBIA
   THROUGH THE ST. LOUIS AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 22-23Z.
   
   MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR CONCERNING POTENTIAL FOR
   REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.  IT COULD BE THAT MID-LEVEL
   WARMING BECOMES INHIBITIVE.  HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THE
   WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM PERTURBATION...AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH/WEST OF THE
   JOPLIN/SPRINGFIELD AREAS...SEEM LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  AND...THIS MAY BECOME
   SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED OR NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE
   CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.  WEAK MIXED LAYER/MOST
   UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG WILL PROBABLY BE A LIMITING
   FACTOR...BUT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
   22Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/26/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
   
   38959433 39369379 39369232 38829041 38178949 37288956
   36969010 37069128 37019226 36569313 36429481 36919584
   37549513 37729470