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Mesoscale Discussion 484
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0440 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 272140Z - 272245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN
   PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SOUTH FL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL
   WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 F IN MANY LOCATIONS AMIDST MID-60S TO
   MID-70S SFC DEWPOINTS. THIS HAS YIELDED SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO
   SUPPORT STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF WARM MIDLEVEL
   TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS
   HIGHLANDS/OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES...WHICH FORMED ALONG A SYNOPTIC COLD
   FRONT. 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SUPPORTING MARGINAL SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WITH THIS STORM...WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
   ONE-INCH HAIL. OTHER TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER S BETWEEN MIA AND
   PBI ALONG A WWD MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. HERE...TSTMS WILL HAVE A
   SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OVER LAND GIVEN ELY MOTION...BUT BRIEF HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY EXIST. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO THREAT
   COULD EXIST IF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CAN INTERACT WITH MORE
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION FARTHER INLAND. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE
   THREATS WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   25098037 25238081 26248107 27518120 28028088 28128051
               27608021 26557990 25638007 25098037 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2015
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