|
| Mesoscale Discussion 485 |
|
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...TX BIG COUNTRY/ERN PERMIAN BASIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 162248Z - 162345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTY/ERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. TSTM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION...CU DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY/ERN PERMIAN BASIN AS HEATING CONTINUES AND A
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NRN MEXICO INTO W TX. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION ARE VERY WARM WITH A DEEPLY MIXED PROFILES
SUPPORTING UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
KDYX RADAR REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY MOVING NWWD ACROSS
JONES...SHACKELFORD...AND YOUNG COUNTIES. AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW SE WINDS S OF THE BOUNDARY AND NW WINDS N...RESULTING IN AT
LEAST MODEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. RUC-BASED MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES THE AREA IS STILL CAPPED BUT TRENDS SUGGEST AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT SHORTLY. CONTINUED HEATING AND INCREASING
LIFT /RESULTANT FROM BOTH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE/ SHOULD RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J PER
KG/ AND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS
NON-ZERO BUT LARGE SPREADS WILL KEEP THE THREAT VERY LOW. A WW MAY
BE NEEDED IF RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST MORE THAN ISOLATED
COVERAGE.
..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 04/16/2013
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33039877 32719862 31869874 31649894 31229988 31190046
31350105 31640141 32150139 32740119 33350041 33529989
33469931 33349898 33039877
|
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|