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Mesoscale Discussion 485
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE...WEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 282017Z - 282215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TX NWD
   ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO THE OK PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996 MB LOW IN NW NM WITH
   EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE LOW FROM NE NM SEWD
   ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS
   WEST TX WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
   F. IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TX WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN
   THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. DUE TO DESTABILIZATION...THE CAPPING
   INVERSION IS NOW GONE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AGITATED FIELD
   OF CUMULUS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR LUBBOCK.
   CELL INITIATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
   ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS WITH SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
   MOVING NNEWD INTO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WRN TX PANHANDLE BY 22Z. THE LATEST
   WSR-88D VWP AT LUBBOCK SHOWS A 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH
   SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT. THIS WIND PROFILE
   COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -14C
   TO -16C SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL. AS THE
   STORMS GROW UPSCALE AND THE DOWNDRAFTS MATURE...WIND DAMAGE WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   INCREASES IN THE 23Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32550058 32520134 32910236 34230278 34800332 35300350
               36490312 36960250 36880177 36300101 35120042 33749996
               33149993 32550058 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2016
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