MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0548 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX BIG COUNTRY/ERN PERMIAN BASIN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 162248Z - 162345Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
   ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTY/ERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. TSTM
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
   WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   DISCUSSION...CU DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY/ERN PERMIAN BASIN AS HEATING CONTINUES AND A
   SUBTLE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NRN MEXICO INTO W TX. TEMPERATURES
   ACROSS THE REGION ARE VERY WARM WITH A DEEPLY MIXED PROFILES
   SUPPORTING UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. 
   
   KDYX RADAR REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY MOVING NWWD ACROSS
   JONES...SHACKELFORD...AND YOUNG COUNTIES. AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   SHOW SE WINDS S OF THE BOUNDARY AND NW WINDS N...RESULTING IN AT
   LEAST MODEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. RUC-BASED MESOANALYSIS
   INDICATES THE AREA IS STILL CAPPED BUT TRENDS SUGGEST AN UNCAPPED
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT SHORTLY. CONTINUED HEATING AND INCREASING
   LIFT /RESULTANT FROM BOTH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE
   UPPER DISTURBANCE/ SHOULD RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION DURING THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J PER
   KG/ AND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS
   NON-ZERO BUT LARGE SPREADS WILL KEEP THE THREAT VERY LOW. A WW MAY
   BE NEEDED IF RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST MORE THAN ISOLATED
   COVERAGE.
   
   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 04/16/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   33039877 32719862 31869874 31649894 31229988 31190046
               31350105 31640141 32150139 32740119 33350041 33529989
               33469931 33349898 33039877