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Mesoscale Discussion 485
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0735 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281235Z - 281430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A SHORT TERM THREAT FOR PRIMARILY
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY
   MID-LATE MORNING WITH DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
   TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
   TIME...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER
   THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE STORMS
   WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER S AND SCNTRL
   FL AHEAD OF A LARGE MCS THAT IS MOVING SEWD INTO CNTRL FL. THE
   DISCRETE STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A WEAK...NEAR-SFC
   STABLE LAYER. 12Z RAOB FROM MIAMI INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE IS
   ALREADY QUITE UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 3000 J/KG MUCAPE...MODEST LAPSE
   RATES AND NO CAP. THE ATMOSPHERE FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE STORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING IS SOMEWHAT LESS UNSTABLE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM
   40-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND AN EARLIER LEFT MOVER
   PRODUCED NICKEL SIZED HAIL AS IT CAME ONSHORE. LATEST VISIBLE
   IMAGERY SHOWS PARTIAL CLEARING OVER SRN FL WHICH WILL SUPPORT
   DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SFC LAYER. STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING
   MCS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY UNDERGO
   INTENSIFICATION LATER THIS MORNING AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD AND
   ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THAT TIME A WW
   ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

   ..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27528255 27828157 27818050 27168029 26558035 26218132
               26708210 27208238 27528255 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2015
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