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Mesoscale Discussion 486
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0603 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119...

   VALID 282303Z - 290030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
   REPORTS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING...GENERALLY
   OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC. A SEVERE CELL OR TWO MAY MOVE OUTSIDE THE
   EASTERN BOUND OF THE WATCH...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE TOO LIMITED IN
   SPACE AND TIME FOR NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF WW 119 THIS EVENING...WITH MULTIPLE LARGE HAIL REPORTS
   NOTED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. KRAX VWP AND MESOANALYSIS DATA
   SUGGEST AROUND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR SOME
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...AND A MIXTURE OF SUPERCELL/MULTICELL MODES
   HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR. WHILE THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
   STABILIZATION THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THE HAIL/WIND
   THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SOME THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
   SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.

   OVERALL STORM MOTION SHOULD BE GENERALLY EASTWARD...MODULATED
   LOCALLY BY PROPAGATION FROM MERGING COLD POOLS/UPSCALE GROWTH AND/OR
   NON-LINEAR EFFECTS IN SPLITTING CELLS. SATELLITE AND SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NARROWING WEDGE OF REMAINING SURFACE
   BUOYANCY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT THOUGH...DUE TO A SEA BREEZE OVER
   SOUTHEASTERN NC AND A SFC FRONT OVER NORTHERN NC. THEREFORE...THE
   LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE NEW WATCH
   ISSUANCE EAST OF WW 119.

   ..PICCA.. 04/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35877983 36937921 36907698 36587632 35777566 35437567
               35007634 34987783 35037828 35467982 35877983 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2016
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