MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0854 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 271354Z - 271600Z
   
   STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.  BUT... CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
   
   ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SLOWLY SPREADING EAST OF THE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY STEEPER ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
   WHICH HAS EMANATED FROM THE PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION. 
   ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY OCCURRING ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT 850 JET...
   ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
   LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITHIN STRONG ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME.
   
   AS MUCH MORE PROMINENT UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST
   OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE 700
   MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  THIS IS FORECAST
   TO BE COUPLED WITH A WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. 
   AND...INCREASING INHIBITION/WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SEEM LIKELY
   TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AS ACTIVITY
   SPREADS EASTWARD THIS MORNING...PROBABLY AS EARLY AS THE 15-16Z TIME
   FRAME.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/27/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
   
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