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Mesoscale Discussion 486
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TO SCNTRL FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 281623Z - 281800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SCNTRL FL
   PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE
   OKEECHOBEE WITH CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER TO
   MID 70S AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN
   THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THE WSR-88D VWP AT MIAMI SHOWS
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO MID-LEVELS WITH SOME
   SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 4 KM AGL. THIS IS CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 55 KT
   WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND CELL ROTATION WITH THE
   STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT STORMS. ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS AND HAIL
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE...THE
   TENDENCY MAY BE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
   THIS WOULD FAVOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS
   CONTINUE TO WARM SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   AS A LINE OF STORMS...CURRENTLY IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...MOVES
   ONTO THE WEST COAST OF SRN FL.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 04/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26048014 25908106 25928169 26538235 26928260 27088260
               27198252 27278231 27298116 27378070 27508022 27337990
               26787979 26048014 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2015
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