MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0601 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO / EXTREME WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156...
   
   VALID 162301Z - 170000Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156
   CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW OVER MOST OF WW
   156 THRU 00Z.  ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ MAY BEGIN
   TO AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF WW 156 THEREAFTER AS INCREASING
   ASCENT/ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER TX PANHANDLE MOVES NWD INTO WW.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS CONFINED TO LINCOLN/ELBERT
   COUNTIES E OF CO FRONT RANGE.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND LIKELY POSE
   ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT.  FURTHER S...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
   CONVECTION OVER WRN KS HAS SURGED WWD THIS AFTN AND OVERTAKEN/MERGED
   WITH NW-SE ORIENTED DRYLINE ACROSS SERN CO.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
   INCREASING SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
   MID-LEVEL CONVECTION STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF NM S/W PIVOTING AROUND
   BROADER SCALE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.  AS INCREASING
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NM S/W BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON DRYLINE/RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF/AS
   ACTIVITY ORGANIZES AND MOVES FROM S-N POSING MAINLY AN ISOLD DMGG
   WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT THRU THE EARLY EVENING.  STORMS LOCATED OVER
   NRN TX PANHANDLE /AS OF 2300Z/ WILL PROBABLY BE AIDED BY INCREASED
   FORCING FOR ASCENT...RESULTING IN EXISTING ACTIVITY BEING MAINTAINED
   AND REINVIGORATED AS IT APPROACHES SRN PORTIONS OF WW AFTER 00Z.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/16/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...
   
   LAT...LON   37000306 37630307 37660403 38880406 39100404 39130466
               39540465 39570373 39980369 39990414 40500414 40500346
               40420207 39100203 39140147 36970155 37000306