MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0844 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CENTRAL IL/WRN INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 170144Z - 170345Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...CONTINUED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INCREASE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
   SRN AND CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT WRN INDIANA...THOUGH LIMITED HAIL
   THREAT ANTICIPATED SUGGESTS WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED.
   
   DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS STORMS INCREASING ATTM N OF THE SURFACE
   COLD FRONT...ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT WRN INDIANA. 
   THE INCREASE IS ONGOING AS A RESULT OF INCREASING WARM
   ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING
   LOW-LEVEL JET.  WHILE CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS
   FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIND THAT THE COMBINATION OF
   SOMEWHAT LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE /LESS THAN 1500 J/KG/ AND MODEST
   CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM INTENSITY. 
   THUS...WHILE SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY...ANY EXCEEDANCE OF SEVERE
   CRITERIA SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND ISOLATED.  THUS...ATTM IT APPEARS
   THAT A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY.
   
   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/17/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   38728707 38068816 37838964 38569049 39249081 40148931
               40678684 40048622 38728707