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Mesoscale Discussion 487
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 120...

   VALID 282326Z - 290100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 120 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS...LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
   TEXAS PANHANDLE.  ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
   PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 01-03Z...BUT IT IS NOT YET
   CERTAIN THAT ANOTHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS WHICH INITIATED EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   DRYLINE NEAR LUBBOCK ARE NOW BEING MAINTAINED IN THE PRESENCE OF
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION AS THEY SPREAD TOWARD THE
   CHILDRESS AREA.  WHILE THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY RETREAT
   WESTWARD TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
   SUPPORT FOR INCREASING STORM DEVELOP NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST OF
   AMARILLO.  THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
   THROUGH MID EVENING...AND PERHAPS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM
   RESIDUAL POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...WHICH MAY LINGER
   NEAR/SOUTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO.  

   30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROGRESSION OF SOME STORMS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
   PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.  THERE MAY BE
   A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   INITIALLY...BUT THE TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO ADVECT INTO A
   MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LEADING TO WEAKENING STORM TRENDS.

   OTHERWISE...RENEWED SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
   THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB
   FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 40+ KT...TORNADIC POTENTIAL COULD STILL INCREASE
   THROUGH THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...AS NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW
   POINT SPREADS DECREASE...PARTICULARLY ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM
   FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN PLAINVIEW AND CHILDRESS.

   ..KERR.. 04/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35470295 36270292 36810226 36970133 36940003 36269924
               35179925 34119958 33210015 33090158 34290274 35470295 

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