MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PNHDL INTO WRN PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 155...
   
   VALID 162333Z - 170100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 155
   CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS CURRENTLY INCREASING ACROSS WRN PART OF WW
   AREA...NAMELY HARTLEY...OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES.  THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE U.S. 287/I-27
   CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
   
   FAIRLY RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
   ACROSS HARTLEY...OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES IN THE WRN TX PNHDL.
    LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE THE
   RESULT OF WWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MERGING WITH STATIONARY
   DRYLINE AND/OR PACIFIC COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE ERN NM
   PLAINS.  MOREOVER...BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM SUSTENANCE OWING TO INCREASED
   HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC COOLING IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
   NEWD THROUGH ERN NM.
   
   RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS MAY STILL BE
   ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE THE COOL CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE
   OF AROUND 500 J/KG.  GIVEN THE RAPID TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LINEAR
   CONFIGURATION...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO
   BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE
   NOT FORECAST TO ADVANCE MUCH FARTHER E INTO WRN TX...THE CONTINUED
   NEWD TRANSLATION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY PROMOTE THE EWD
   MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING STORMS TOWARD THE U.S. 287/I-27
   CORRIDORS THROUGH 01-02Z.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/16/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   37010304 37009997 34749997 34720253 32910259 32930306
               37010304