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Mesoscale Discussion 488
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 290857Z - 291100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER S FL EARLY THIS MORNING. A BRIEF...WEAK
   TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS WITH
   EMBEDDED MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WAS LOCATED OVER S FL FROM
   NORTH OF FLAMINGO TO NEAR KEY LARGO. THIS BAND OF STORMS APPEARS TO
   BE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE A
   REMNANT BOUNDARY LOCATED OFFSHORE. VWP DATA FROM MIAMI SHOW WEAK
   /AOB 20 KT/ WINDS THROUGH LOWEST 3 KM WHICH IS LIMITING HODOGRAPH
   SIZE...BUT SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER IS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT. WHILE
   THIS WIND PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...IT
   IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WHICH IS A
   LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE THAN JUST A BRIEF...WEAK TORNADO OR
   WATERSPOUT. 

   OTHERWISE...LINEAR MCS OVER SWRN FL IS ADVANCING SEWD AT AROUND 25
   KT. A ROTATING COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
   SOME THREAT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY
   THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH S FL NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE THE
   ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500 J/KG MUCAPE...BUT
   WEAK LAPSE RATES.

   ..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   25558080 26118023 25068014 24678179 25558080 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2015
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