MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0325 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL MO...NERN OK...FAR NWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 272025Z - 272200Z
   
   AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE COMMENCING
   AROUND 22Z FROM CNTRL MO SWWD INTO NERN OK. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED
   SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH A
   LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS REGION WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW AROUND 40 N JLN
   WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ARCING EWD TOWARDS STL...AND A COLD
   FRONT DRAPED SWWD TOWARDS OKC /PER REGIONAL RADAR FINE LINE/. RECENT
   VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GROWING CU/TCU JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW
   CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MIXING HAS WEAKENED
   THE CAP /PER MODIFIED NAMKF AND RUC SOUNDINGS/...IT APPEARS FRONTAL
   INTERACTIONS WILL BE REQUIRED TO COMPLETELY OVERCOME INHIBITION.
   THUS...CONVECTION SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY
   FRONT IN CNTRL MO AND THEN FARTHER SWWD AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES
   ONGOING CU/TCU BANDS.
   
   A SSW-NNE ORIENTED AXIS OF UPPER 50S DEW POINTS SITUATED IN ERN OK
   WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 500
   MB WLYS AT 40-50 KT /PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/...COULD LEAD TO INITIAL
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT. WITH TIME...TSTM ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BECOME UNDERCUT BY
   OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT SHIFTING S/SEWD AS CYCLONE ACCELERATES EWD THIS
   EVENING. AS SUCH...INCREASINGLY ELEVATED TSTMS WITH A MORE MARGINAL
   HAIL THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE BY 3-4 HRS AFTER INITIATION.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/27/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
   
   37709444 38379393 38769324 38859226 38619176 38159189
   37459253 36349388 35479494 35389563 35709587 36249574
   36829526