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Mesoscale Discussion 488
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 290052Z - 290215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT...
   ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND...IS
   POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR THE TEMPLE/WACO AREAS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. 
   A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED NORTH OF THE
   AUSTIN TX AREA.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS
   NEGLIGIBLE...OR IS AT LEAST UNCLEAR...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE
   OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   RETURN...JUST TO THE NORTH OF WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR WHICH IS ADVECTING NORTHEAST OF THE RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY.  IN THE PRESENCE OF MIXED LAYER CAPE PERHAPS IN
   EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS APPEARS
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEMPLE THROUGH WACO VICINITIES DURING THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...IT CURRENTLY SEEMS
   LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED...AS INHIBITION BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH THE
   ONSET OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THROUGH THE 03-05Z TIME
   FRAME.

   ..KERR/HART.. 04/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30539759 30819877 31539870 31749793 31499641 31059546
               30319638 30539759 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2016
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