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Mesoscale Discussion 489
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1031 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
   REGION

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121...

   VALID 290331Z - 290500Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH AT LEAST SOME
   RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
   ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 04Z.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM WEST AND NORTH OF DALHART
   TX EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THIS IS SUPPORTED
   BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM
   AND CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WHICH IS ADVECTING NORTH OF
   THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS IS
   OCCURRING AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
   SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  

   A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS NOW PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
   OF AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED WEST OF THE FOUR
   CORNERS...ACROSS ARIZONA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  AS THIS
   PROGRESSES EASTWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR
   ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NEW
   MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER AREA...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 05-07Z.  SOUTH OF
   INTERSTATE 40...THIS MAY MOSTLY BE FOCUSED WITHIN A REMNANT
   LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WHERE
   STEEP LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY
   BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  BENEATH
   STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...PERHAPS
   ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.

   ..KERR.. 04/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36150393 36650275 36310186 36260042 35749994 34640009
               33910054 33270182 32600285 32930362 33490400 34310404
               35310418 36150393 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2016
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