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Mesoscale Discussion 489
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0131 PM CDT FRI MAY 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 011831Z - 012100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL SHIFT EAST
   INTO THE ERN CO PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL
   CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...WITH A FEW PERHAPS REACHING 1 INCH.

   DISCUSSION...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TSTMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING SINCE ABOUT
   17Z OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO. WITH THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
   DESTABILIZING AMIDST A MEAN DEEP-LAYER WLY WIND PROFILE...STORMS
   WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS E ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR INTO THE ERN CO
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AMDAR DATA INVOF DENVER CONFIRM ONLY 20-25 KT
   500-MB WLYS ATOP A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SELYS DEPICTED IN KFTG/KPUX VWP
   DATA. WITH UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING ON THE MODEST SIDE AS
   WELL...UPDRAFT ROTATION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN BOTH INTENSITY/TEMPORAL
   EXTENT. EVEN SO...STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   40S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HALF-INCH TO
   ONE-INCH HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39310533 40520550 40840562 41110544 41270507 41280454
               41000400 40150362 38680356 38080399 38040469 38230510
               38550530 38580536 39310533 

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Page last modified: May 01, 2015
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