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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND ERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 170043Z - 170145Z
A LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS
OF N-CNTRL AND ERN TX. A WW IS UNLIKELY AS ISOLD STORM/THREAT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS RECENTLY DEVELOPED STORMS IN THE PAST HR
EXTENDING FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR 25 MI N OF ACT SEWD TO THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY. A RECENT GOLF BALL REPORT NEAR ACT INDICATES STORMS
ARE TAPPING MODERATE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /1500 J/KG
MUCAPE PER 00Z FWD RAOB/ WITHIN A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY ZONE/WARM
ADVECTING REGIME N OF A STRONG CAPPED EML FURTHER S /AS DEPICTED BY
THE 00Z CRP RAOB/. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8 DEG C H7-H5/
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SELY/S BENEATH VEERING 40 KT FLOW AT
500MB...WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION/SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ONLY ISOLD
COVERAGE. AS SUCH...A WW IS UNLIKELY AS STORMS SPREAD NEWD INTO
PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND NERN TX THE NEXT FEW HRS.
..SMITH.. 04/17/2009
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 30509409 31799747 32359774 32989730 33209609 32729470
31569401 30699387 30509409
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