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Mesoscale Discussion 489
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0422 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NC INTO S-CNTRL/SERN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 300922Z - 301015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA INTO MID MORNING. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS
   BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL NC INTO S-CNTRL
   VA WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FORCED BY LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
   WAA ALONG A 35-40 KT SLY LLJ. THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING INVOF OF A
   SW-NE-ORIENTED WEDGE OR WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLT-W OF
   RDU-RIC AS OF 09Z...AND WITHIN A MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT RALEIGH VAD SHOWS LARGELY SPEED
   SHEAR IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL KM AGL WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
   HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOTABLY STRONGER
   OVER SERN VA /PER WAKEFIELD VAD/ WHERE 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2
   IS BEING OBSERVED.

   WHILE IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW CURRENT STORMS WILL EVOLVE OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND
   INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR INVOF THE WARM FRONT SUGGEST THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. SHOULD FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION
   OCCUR...A WATCH MIGHT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

   ..MEAD.. 04/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35307943 36567878 37537812 37747742 37297679 36067709
               35327778 34997846 34947897 35307943 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2014
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