MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND ERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 170043Z - 170145Z
   
   A LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS
   OF N-CNTRL AND ERN TX.  A WW IS UNLIKELY AS ISOLD STORM/THREAT
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
   
   LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS RECENTLY DEVELOPED STORMS IN THE PAST HR
   EXTENDING FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR 25 MI N OF ACT SEWD TO THE SABINE
   RIVER VALLEY.  A RECENT GOLF BALL REPORT NEAR ACT INDICATES STORMS
   ARE TAPPING MODERATE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /1500 J/KG
   MUCAPE PER 00Z FWD RAOB/ WITHIN A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY ZONE/WARM
   ADVECTING REGIME N OF A STRONG CAPPED EML FURTHER S /AS DEPICTED BY
   THE 00Z CRP RAOB/.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8 DEG C H7-H5/
   ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SELY/S BENEATH VEERING 40 KT FLOW AT
   500MB...WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION/SUPERCELLS. 
   HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ONLY ISOLD
   COVERAGE.  AS SUCH...A WW IS UNLIKELY AS STORMS SPREAD NEWD INTO
   PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND NERN TX THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/17/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
   LAT...LON   30509409 31799747 32359774 32989730 33209609 32729470
               31569401 30699387 30509409