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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0836 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS SWD INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 157...
VALID 170136Z - 170300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 157 CONTINUES.
THROUGH 03Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST FROM
MARTIN AND HOWARD COUNTIES NEWD INTO KENT AND STONEWALL COUNTIES.
FARTHER W...WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL YIELD LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
/HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1-2 INCHES/ IN ADDITION TO SOME HAIL.
THESE THREATS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE I-27 CORRIDOR
THROUGH 03Z.
AS OF 0120Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
/SUPERCELLS/ OVER MARTIN AND ERN GARZA/WRN KENT COUNTIES MOVING NEWD
AT AROUND 30 KT. THESE STORMS ARE SITUATED ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS DEVELOPMENT...WITHIN A STRENGTHENING ESELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. MODIFICATION OF 00Z MAF SOUNDING FOR CURRENT
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WITHIN IMMEDIATE INFLOW REGION TO THESE
STORMS SUGGESTS THAT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS...A TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
LARGE HAIL TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD.
ELSEWHERE...TSTMS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM NEAR AND W OF LBB TO
NW OF MAF...DUE IN PART TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH ERN NM/WRN
TX. THIS LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS BEING AUGMENTED BY MESOSCALE ASCENT
IN THE LOW-LEVELS ALONG/E OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING WWD
TOWARD THE TX/NM BORDER. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL...EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBLEMATIC OWING TO ECHO TRAINING
AND/OR BACKBUILDING STORM DEVELOPMENT.
..MEAD.. 04/17/2009
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 32150314 33000314 33020270 34870275 34879985 32899991
32770009 31890006 31650021 31360046 31000061 30970259
31160287 32150314
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