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Mesoscale Discussion 490
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0490
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 290658Z - 290900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE RISK IN ALL HAZARDS OCCURRING
   AFTER 09Z.

   DISCUSSION...06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A ROBUST WARM FRONT ACROSS
   NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTH LA. LOW-LEVEL WAA IS
   SUPPORTING A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE N OF THIS
   BOUNDARY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO ARKLATEX REGION. GPS PW DATA HAVE
   SAMPLED A RAPID INCREASE IN VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH
   LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS COMMON WITHIN THE MARITIME
   TROPICAL AIR MASS. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRENGTHENING OF THE
   EASTERN BRANCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH THE NOSE FOCUSED ON THE
   ARKLATEX REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z. WHILE ALL CONVECTION WILL POSE A
   RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL /LIKELY NO LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS
   GIVEN PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE/...REGENERATIVE ACTIVITY MAY
   EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SURFACE-BASED AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES
   NORTH. WITHIN AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH...A COUPLE EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS COULD BECOME POSSIBLE TOWARDS 12Z.
   HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST WHETHER THE STRENGTH OF THE
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND RELATED CAPPING INVERSION MAY MITIGATE TRUE
   WARM SECTOR STORM SUSTENANCE.

   ..GRAMS/GOSS.. 04/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34489793 35149729 35229576 34979386 34719302 34369269
               33869250 33279291 32909364 32669485 32709609 32849721
               33309794 33999814 34489793 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2016
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