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Mesoscale Discussion 490
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0490
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0558 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND...NW MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 022258Z - 030100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A STORM
   CLUSTER APPROACHING THE FARGO-MOORHEAD AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD
   QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT CONSOLIDATION OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS
   YIELDED A SMALL CLUSTER APPROACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY FROM SE ND.
   DESPITE THE MVX VWP SAMPLING SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
   ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...0-6 KM VALUES AROUND 40 KT...VERY LARGE SURFACE
   TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS BETWEEN 40-50 DEG F SUGGEST THAT
   SEVERE HAIL RISK SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. THE DEEP INVERTED-V
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR STRONG TO
   ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WITH 40-50 KT GUSTS MEASURED AT SEVERAL
   ASOS/AWOS STATIONS SINCE 21Z. WITH THE REGION REMAINING WELL
   DIVORCED FROM A PLUME OF COMPARATIVELY RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS
   FROM SE SD/NW IA SWD/...THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER
   SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER RAPIDLY COOLS.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 05/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47259730 47559693 47589658 47529623 47219591 46699593
               46049620 45939659 45949770 46139803 46619779 47259730 

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Page last modified: May 03, 2015
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