MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0490
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0821 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 280121Z - 280245Z
   
   ISOLATED STORM OVER NWRN AR IS APPROACHING ERN EDGE OF WW 138. THE
   STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND WITH LIMITED THREAT
   FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS N CNTRL AR THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AREA.
   
   STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAINLY
   FROM ERN OK AND ALSO SERN MO. AN ISOLATED STORM REMAINS OVER EXTREME
   NWRN AR...BUT OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE STORM TO DECREASE AND
   BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE 00Z RAOB FROM
   LITTLE ROCK INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRONGLY CAPPED WITH SWD
   EXTENT INTO AR. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND
   WEAKEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY LATER
   THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGEST SURFACE BASED STORM
   INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT.
   HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS INCREASING IN POST FRONTAL
   REGION WHERE DEEPER LIFT AND WEAKER CAP EXIST. MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/28/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...
   
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