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Mesoscale Discussion 491
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0491
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0858 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 301358Z - 301500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 120 IS
   EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALTHOUGH A FEW
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
   ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR
   APALACHICOLA FL. THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE THE WARM
   SECTOR WHERE INSTABILITY IS WEAK. THE LATEST WSR-88 VWP AT
   TALLAHASSEE SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM. THIS MAY ENABLE THE
   LINE-SEGMENT TO REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY THREAT
   ISOLATED.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29338317 29628400 29358469 29788512 30468508 30478389
               30058284 29338317 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2014
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