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Mesoscale Discussion 491
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0491
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0619 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SD...NE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 022319Z - 030115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSING LOCALIZED THREATS OF GUSTY
   WINDS AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. THESE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED AND
   TOO SHORT-LIVED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO RECENT INCREASE IN
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL NEB.
   WHILE A SHORT DIURNAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST FOR A COUPLE
   OF NEAR-SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND EVENTS...OVERALL CONVECTIVE VIGOR
   WILL BE TEMPERED BY SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING... 1) LACK OF MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CAPE... 2) GENERALLY MARGINAL
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR AVERAGING AROUND 30KT AND... 3) LACK OF STRONGER
   SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WHILE SHEAR AND ASCENT MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT
   INTO THE EVENING WITH THE REGION BEING BRUSHED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   PASSAGE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE NORTH...THIS WILL COINCIDE
   WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION...LIKELY
   LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SUSTAINED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
   THUS PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE IS LOW.

   ..CARBIN/EDWARDS.. 05/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43290082 44140068 44390012 44179945 43539905 42869894
               42309901 41829905 41469915 41209944 41009975 40810006
               40680028 40870038 41350030 41780033 42060038 42530062
               42940073 43290082 

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Page last modified: May 03, 2015
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