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Mesoscale Discussion 491
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0491
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES AND TX SOUTH PLAINS...FAR
   EAST-CENTRAL NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122...

   VALID 290759Z - 290930Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT HAD DIMINISHED FOR A TIME...IT
   APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN WITH CONVECTION STRENGTHENING
   OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM THAT IS LIKELY TO SPREAD/DEVELOP EAST WITHIN WW
   122. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

   DISCUSSION...RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
   EAST-CENTRAL NM. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A LOBE OF ASCENT
   /INFERRED THROUGH WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED IMAGERY/ DOWNSTREAM OF
   THE SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SUSTAINED HEIGHT FALLS AND DCVA OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
   STORM COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PANHANDLE. MOST CAMS
   APPEAR TO SIMULATE THIS SCENARIO REASONABLY WELL. OVERALL
   ENVIRONMENT AMID CLUSTER TO LINEAR MODES SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
   ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THROUGH AT LEAST
   DAYBREAK.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37080050 37109986 36879956 35839973 34980043 33960121
               33590281 33770340 34140348 36030194 37080050 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2016
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