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Mesoscale Discussion 492
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0492
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TX...FAR WEST OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122...

   VALID 290954Z - 291100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND
   SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF WW 122. WHETHER THE THREAT WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR A REPLACEMENT WW IS UNCLEAR...AND SPC WILL BE
   CONTACTING AFFECTED WFOS ABOUT THE RISK BEYOND 11Z.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING FROM NORTHWEST OK
   SOUTHWEST TO THE TX S PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO GREATLY
   INTENSIFY BEYOND STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS IN SPITE OF
   LARGE CYCLONIC HODOGRAPHS SAMPLED IN AMA/LBB VWP DATA NEAR/NORTH OF
   THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT ARCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM TO NEAR LBB
   AND EAST ACROSS NORTH TX. FARTHER SOUTH...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
   CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN LBB/MAF WITHIN A MORE
   FAVORABLE SURFACE-BASED ENVIRONMENT. THE 08Z HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
   CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. WITH A CONDITIONALLY
   SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...CONCERN EXISTS THAT AT
   LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34790297 35320232 36020137 36320057 36190008 35879978
               35089967 34139969 33150026 32770066 32640137 32810171
               33700191 34090257 34350297 34790297 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2016
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