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Mesoscale Discussion 492
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0492
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0801 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 030101Z - 030230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A 1-2 HR RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
   WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AS CONVECTION LIKELY WEAKENS AFTER
   SUNSET.

   DISCUSSION...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAD BEEN REPORTED WITHIN
   A PAIR OF SPLITTING CELLS OVER COLFAX COUNTY. CONVECTION THAT WAS
   INITIALLY CONFINED TO THE SYNOPTICALLY-EVIDENT SURFACE TROUGH /OVER
   CNTRL NEB/ HAS INCREASED FARTHER E ALONG A COUPLE OF CONFLUENCE
   ZONES IDENTIFIABLE IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY. MODIFIED 00Z OAX RAOB FOR THE BEST THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT IN E-CNTRL NEB SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE FROM
   1000-1500 J/KG IS COINCIDENT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. GIVEN
   THE STEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT...SEVERE HAIL WILL
   REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND MLCIN
   INCREASES /ESPECIALLY WITH ERN EXTENT/...TSTM INTENSITY WILL WANE.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 05/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41209824 42079849 42369831 42479745 42469691 42169648
               41789624 41339617 40899637 40809682 40819730 40979783
               41209824 

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Page last modified: May 03, 2015
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