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Mesoscale Discussion 493
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI/SERN MN/NWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 032041Z - 032245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG A SLOWLY ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT.  SOME
   RISK FOR HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE
   STRONGEST CELLS...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD
   ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT -- FROM NWRN WI SWWD ACROSS
   SRN MN INTO FAR SERN SD/NWRN IA ATTM...AS HEATING OF THE MODESTLY
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS FUELED AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION
   /MIXED-LAYER CAPE ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG/.  INITIAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER FAR NWRN WI...WITH WEAKER CONVECTION
   EXTENDING EWD INTO WRN UPPER MI.  EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO
   OCCUR SWWD ALONG THE FRONT TO NWRN IA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 OF HOURS.  

   ALONG WITH MODEST BUT SUFFICIENT CAPE...THE OBSERVED WIND FIELD
   ACROSS THE REGION IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS/WEAK UPDRAFT
   ROTATION...WITH FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING/INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO
   25-30 KT THROUGH 3-5 KM.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK -- AND
   SOMEWHAT VEERED/WSWLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF
   THE AREA...TORNADO RISK APPEARS LOW.  HOWEVER...SEVERE RISK MAY
   BECOME SUFFICIENT /PENDING TRENDS IN INITIATION/EVOLUTION OF STORMS/
   TO REQUIRE WW CONSIDERATION.

   ..GOSS/HART.. 05/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   46699076 45998918 45148975 42679439 42329570 42809639
               43409619 44139517 46699076 

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Page last modified: May 03, 2015
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