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Mesoscale Discussion 493
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0706 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123...

   VALID 291206Z - 291300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK
   FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAL
    EXTENSION OF WW 123 INTO SOUTHEAST AR SHOULD BE CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE STORMS WITHIN WW 123 WERE LOCATED WITHIN
   THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE WATCH AS OF 12Z. THIS CONVECTION IS
   LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED JUST N OF THE SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
   FAR NORTH TX THROUGH TEXARKANA AND FAR SOUTH AR. WHILE TIME-SERIES
   OF SHV VWP DATA HAS INDICATED SOME WEAKENING OF THE LLJ IN THE PAST
   HOUR...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO
   SOUTHEAST AR THROUGH THE REMAINING VALID PERIOD OF THE WATCH. STEEP
   700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 DEG C/KM AS SAMPLED BY 12Z LITTLE ROCK
   RAOB WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
   THREAT...WITH EMBEDDED STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE AMID A
   CLUSTER MODE.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34279314 34479257 34449180 34279131 34019127 33759157
               33539182 33419227 33479281 33669310 33829323 34279314 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2016
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