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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NE LA...CNTRL MS...INTO W CNTRL AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281638Z - 281845Z
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. BUT...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
ALTHOUGH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF A TENDENCY TOWARD
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...INHIBITION HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AND...WARMING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE...IN THE WAKE OF
AN INITIAL IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS
EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...SOUTH OF MONROE
LA THROUGH THE JACKSON/MERIDIAN MS VICINITIES...INTO AREAS
WEST/NORTH OF SELMA AL...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERAL
APPROACHING 500 J/KG.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE RAPIDLY SHIFTING INTO/THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE BY/SHORTLY AFTER
18-19Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER. THOUGH
CAPE COULD INCREASE UP TO 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING...WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR/FLOW SHOULD MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BUT...SEASONABLY COOL/UNSATURATED MID-LEVEL PROFILES
WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALIZED BRIEF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
..KERR.. 03/28/2008
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
31829240 32469184 32729085 33048976 33168885 33158831
33388727 32958694 32258707 31868792 31458911 31419051
31179134 31249230
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