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Mesoscale Discussion 494
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0494
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NE AND WRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032057Z - 032300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
   DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR
   SEVERE HAIL REPORT ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...2030Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS A RELATIVELY
   ROBUST CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NE. LATEST WSR-88D
   DATA FROM KUEX DEPICT SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK ECHOES ALOFT...WITH ONE
   MODEST CORE OVER NERN MERRICK CO. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE/BECOME MORE VIGOROUS OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...AS SFC CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
   TROUGH/NEAR WEAK SFC LOW AND STRONG HEATING /E.G. TEMPS RISING INTO
   THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S/ SUSTAIN STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WHILE FLOW
   REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK /WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY ON
   THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS/...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING
   MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. AS SUCH...A THREAT FOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST. FURTHERMORE...A DEEPLY MIXED BL
   AND POTENTIAL STORM MERGERS WILL OFFER A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
   STRONG WIND GUSTS. NONETHELESS...DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF
   ORGANIZATION EXPECTED...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STORMS SHOULD
   GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOLLOWING THE LOSS OF INSOLATION LATER THIS
   EVENING.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 05/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   42719528 42199442 41169431 40699490 40319594 40049677
               39999806 40089856 40359915 40679937 40729937 41319869
               42109775 42719713 42799702 42969604 42719528 

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Page last modified: May 03, 2015
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