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Mesoscale Discussion 494
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0494
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 291238Z - 291415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
   SOUTHEAST OF A SUPERCELL CENTERED OVER LAMB/HALE COUNTY. WHILE
   CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT NEAR-TERM...SHOULD THIS
   OCCUR A TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...A LONE SUPERCELL HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST HOUR AND IS
   CENTERED ON LAMB/HALE COUNTY AS OF 1230Z. DURING ITS LIFE CYCLE...A
   TIGHT MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPED BUT HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED. LBB VWP DATA
   SAMPLED THE INFLOW ENVIRONMENT WELL WITH AN ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPH CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. WHILE THIS
   STORM FORMED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE NOW ACCELERATING SURFACE
   CYCLONE...STORM DEVELOPMENT IN FLANKING CUMULUS TO ITS SOUTH/EAST
   HAS FAILED TO OCCUR. GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND LACK OF SIGNAL IN
   CAMS...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ALONG THE DRYLINE AND/OR WARM FRONT TO OFFER
   ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE
   TO ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIAL FOR ALL HAZARDS.

   ..GRAMS/GOSS.. 04/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34210209 34560132 34470051 34249991 33869950 33339954
               32949988 32850051 32970146 33550211 33910224 34210209 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2016
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