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Mesoscale Discussion 495
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0495
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0946 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR...NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
   TX...AND WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123...

   VALID 291446Z - 291615Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LACK OF A CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   ACROSS WW 123 WILL ALLOW THIS WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 15Z.  ADDITIONAL
   ELEVATED STORMS THAT RECENTLY FORMED IN NORTHEAST TX TO NORTHWEST LA
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL WATCH
   CONSIDERATIONS.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1430Z...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE
   MCS MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS AR...WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS LOCATED
   ON THE SOUTHEAST LEADING EDGE IN JEFFERSON AND BRADLEY COUNTIES. THE
   S/SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING THE MCS
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...WHILE IR IMAGERY SHOWED A
   GRADUAL WARMING TREND OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE MCS.

   MEANWHILE...RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE WAA
   ATTENDANT TO THE S/SWLY LLJ.  GIVEN THE FORECAST WEAKENING OF THIS
   LLJ AND TRENDS IN THE HRRR INDICATING THIS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
   SHOULD PERSIST...YET NOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY SUGGESTS A NEW WW IS
   NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   DOWNSTREAM INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN MS FOR ANY INCREASE IN STORM
   INTENSITY AND SEVERE THREAT.  THE 12Z SHV SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR FAVORING HAIL PRODUCTION WITH
   THE STRONGEST CELLS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34079448 35079312 35019114 34559035 33179078 32589142
               32039222 31569313 31599369 32449437 33209486 34079448 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2016
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