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Mesoscale Discussion 495
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0495
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0706 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...FAR NE KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 040006Z - 040130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...GREATEST NEAR-TERM SEVERE RISK CONTINUES IN THE FORM OF
   LARGE HAIL WITH S/SEWD-MOVING SUPERCELL OVER FAR SERN NEB. ISOLATED
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
   OTHER STORMS FARTHER N.

   DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT SUPERCELL THAT INITIALLY FORMED NEAR A
   QUADRUPLE-POINT CYCLONE OVER SE NEB HAS CONSISTENTLY EVOLVED S/SE
   INTO JOHNSON/OTOE COUNTIES AS OF 00Z. WITH MUCH OF THE FORWARD-FLANK
   PRECIPITATING OVER THE ORIGINAL W/E-ORIENTED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   BOUNDARY...THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE MOVING ALONG A SUBTLE
   NNW/SSE-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE AXIS THAT EXTENDS INTO NE KS. LARGE HAIL
   HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
   THE PRIMARY HAZARD GIVEN THE STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE AND
   VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT SAMPLED IN 00Z RAOB. WITH 30-35 KT
   LOW-LEVEL SWLYS DEPICTED ALREADY IN TWX/EAX VWP DATA...WAA SHOULD
   SUPPORT SUSTENANCE OF THIS STORM AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE CLUSTER MODE
   DESPITE INCREASING MLCIN AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE RISK
   SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNTREND AFTER ABOUT 02-03Z.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 05/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   41679741 42009687 42029642 41919619 41329596 40649567
               40089552 39779564 39529593 39549615 39749622 40649684
               41119738 41679741 

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Page last modified: May 04, 2015
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