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Mesoscale Discussion 496
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS...FAR NE LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 291737Z - 291900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LINE OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST AS IT CONTINUES EWD/NEWD INTO NRN/CNTRL MS AND FAR NE LA. WW
   ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASING
   STORM STRENGTH.

   DISCUSSION...AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF A LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM
   JUST W OF NQA SWWD TO MLU -- MOVING ROUGHLY NNEWD AT 35 KT -- IS
   GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AS A RESULT OF MODEST DIURNAL HEATING.
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE FROM 1000-2000 J PER KG AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME
   DISSOCIATION EXISTS BETWEEN THE BETTER SHEAR /NEAR AND N OF NQA/ AND
   THE BEST INSTABILITY /ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN MS/. THIS DISSOCIATION
   COUPLED WITH A PRIMARILY LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT
   STRENGTH AND/OR ORGANIZATION AS THE LINE CONTINUES EWD/NEWD. EVEN
   SO...EPISODIC UPDRAFT STRENGTHENING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
   ISOLATED/SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AND TRENDS ACROSS
   THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33729071 34459023 34908969 34898885 34568851 33878856
               32698890 31918960 31779017 32239175 33729071 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2016
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