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Mesoscale Discussion 496
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NE IA...FAR SE MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 040047Z - 040130Z

   CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT STATE ABBREVIATION IN SUMMARY

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND/OR DEVELOP ALONG THE
   COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES SEWD INTO CNTRL IA AND SE MN. OCCASIONAL
   SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED SEVERE
   COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE MAKES WW ISSUANCE UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM LUM IN
   W-CNTRL WI SWWD ACROSS SE MN AND N-CNTRL IA TO S OF OFK IN ERN NEB.
   ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT IN SE MN AND N-CNTRL IA IS
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER TO
   THE SW. ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   50S...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 DEG C PER KM /PER
   MESOANALYSIS/. THESE CONDITIONS RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.
   GIVEN THIS INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...TSTM
   ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND/OR DEVELOP FROM CNTRL
   IA NEWD INTO FAR SE MN. HOWEVER...REGIONAL VADS AND MESOANALYSIS
   BOTH AGREE THAT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS LESS THAN 30 KT...SUGGESTING
   ONLY TRANSIENT STORM ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS WILL LIKELY
   BE UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING COLD FRONT. A TRANSITION TO A MOSTLY
   ANA-FRONTAL SCENARIO SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE CONTINUE PUSH OF THE
   COLD FRONT...DIURNAL COOLING...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
   JET.

   ..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 05/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41819587 42279551 43049396 43849249 43999162 43139140
               42559222 41489455 41819587 

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Page last modified: May 04, 2015
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