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Mesoscale Discussion 497
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1022 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN NEB/NERN KS/NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 127...

   VALID 040322Z - 040445Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 127 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PRIMARY NEAR-TERM SEVERE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL SHOULD
   DIMINISH TO A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND RISK OVERNIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...OVERALL TSTM INTENSITY HAS NOCTURNALLY WANED GIVEN
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE COOLED 8-12 DEG F FROM LATE AFTERNOON
   AND MODEST MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 8-9 G/KG IN AREA 00Z RAOBS. THIS
   WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY LARGE MLCIN. IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER WLYS ABOVE 2 KM AGL...CURRENT
   LONE SUPERCELL OVER NEMAHA COUNTY NEB APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS
   OF DECOUPLING FROM THE SURFACE. A PERSISTENT 50-KT S/SWLY LLJ COULD
   SUSTAIN BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION ATOP REMNANT W/E-ORIENTED
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NEAR THE SE NEB/NE KS BORDER. STEEP
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL RATES WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY STRONG WIND RISK.

   ..GRAMS.. 05/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   40469705 40499624 40509500 40499460 40309450 40119465
               39979516 39899582 39919638 40009661 40129696 40259707
               40469705 

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Page last modified: May 04, 2015
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