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Mesoscale Discussion 497
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AR/NRN LA/NERN TX/SERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 291751Z - 291945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR TSTM
   POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
   DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   FROM NERN TX TO NWRN LA ALONG A ZONE OF MODEST ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BEING SUSTAINED NWD FROM FAR SERN
   OK TO SRN AR. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MODEST ASCENT WILL CONTINUE
   AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   MEANWHILE...A MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
   NWD...WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY. THE SHV VWP IS SAMPLING AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP
   SHEAR THAT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...INCLUDING
   SUPERCELL CLUSTERS. SVR WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME TORNADO RISK...THOUGH NUMEROUS
   INTERACTING CELLS MAY TEMPER THE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL. WITH
   CONTINUED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF STORM INFLOW...STORM INTENSITY
   WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POTENTIALLY WARRANTING
   TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE SOON.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32049397 32049610 32639647 33639599 34329466 34159291
               33459213 32499240 32049397 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2016
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