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Mesoscale Discussion 498
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...FAR N-CNTRL NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 051901Z - 052000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
   EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN VA INTO FAR N-CNTRL NC. BOTH
   COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT APPEAR INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
   A WW.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE BLUE
   RIDGE MTNS OF SWRN VA THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCEMENT OF FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED WITH SFC OBS GENERALLY
   SHOWING NEAR 50 F SFC DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING HAS
   OCCURRED S OF A NWD MOVING BOUNDARY BENEATH LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
   C/KM...AND IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RELATIVELY WEAK /PER VWP DATA/...BUT
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER FLOW
   ALOFT...AND COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND GUST THREAT.
   THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT
   WILL BE NON-ZERO OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND FAIRLY STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 05/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36227901 36598032 36908092 37168098 37298058 37348008
               37207947 36977897 36507862 36227901 

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Page last modified: May 05, 2014
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