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Mesoscale Discussion 498
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 291752Z - 291945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS ONE OR MORE
   NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BROKEN BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
   NORTH-CENTRAL TX...GENERALLY IN VICINITY AND WEST OF THE I-35
   CORRIDOR.  ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE WEATHER
   WATCHES LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED RICH
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH
   CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AS
   FAR NORTH AS THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.  GOES-14 1-MINUTE
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED CU FORMING AS N-S ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...AS SURFACE HEATING BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES IS RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500-3000 J
   PER KG/.

   MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED ONE STORM HAD
   DEVELOPED IN HAYS COUNTY TX...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BECOMING
   DEEPER FARTHER WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST FROM KIMBLE TO ERATH COUNTIES
   TX.  THIS LATTER CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING
   EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL AND SWLY
   MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS.  AS THE ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST THIS
   AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH ALL
   SEVERE HAZARDS LIKELY GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC AND
   KINEMATIC FIELDS.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32929662 31179705 30089769 30059880 30419985 31289930
               32339866 33089820 33139789 32929662 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2016
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