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Mesoscale Discussion 498
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0128 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN NM/W TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 041828Z - 042000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. WATCH ISSUANCE
   IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY 19-20Z.

   DISCUSSION...DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NM
   INTO W TX...AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW COMBINES WITH MODERATE
   DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE REGION. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES
   TO SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS
   AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THEN SPREADING
   SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME. 

   BY MID-AFTERNOON...MODERATELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AS
   DEPICTED IN THE 18Z MAF SOUNDING/ IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
   J/KG...WITH 2000+ J/KG POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF W TX WHERE STRONGER
   HEATING IS OCCURRING. WHILE MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD
   WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. VERY LARGE HAIL
   WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY REMAINING DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS W
   TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BEGIN
   TO INCREASE. GIVEN THESE THREATS...WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE
   REQUIRED IN THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME.

   ..DEAN/HART.. 05/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   30440438 31760501 32960514 33870427 34090306 32820250
               31520244 30760247 30140244 29690272 29170300 29530364
               30440438 

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Page last modified: May 04, 2015
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