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Mesoscale Discussion 499
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0499
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 041845Z - 042045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL REPORTS OR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
   MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EARLY THIS EVENING. WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...18Z WSR-88D MOSAIC ILLUSTRATES AN AREA OF BLOSSOMING
   CONVECTION AROUND APPROX TCC-CVS AND TO THE EAST OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE TX PANHANDLE. WHILE NONE OF THE CONVECTION HAS APPEARED
   PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED /LIKELY DUE TO FAIRLY MEAGER EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR/...RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE BUOYANCY
   ARE YIELDING ROBUST ELEVATED REFLECTIVITY CORES. INDEED...A
   WELL-MIXED BL AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S HAVE COMBINED
   WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
   1000-1500 J/KG. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS A
   RESULT OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A N/NEWD-PROGRESSING MCV /TO THE
   WEST OF TCC/ AND A SFC TROUGH/FRONT STRETCHING TO THE NE.
   HOWEVER...DUE TO THE MODEST WIND PROFILE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
   DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE BETWEEN AN ABUNDANCE OF CONVECTIVE
   ACTIVITY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A MARGINAL
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR A FEW STRONG GUSTS. MOST RECENT KFDX
   DATA SUPPORT THIS NOTION...AS VELOCITY AND DUAL-POL CC/ZDR DATA IN
   THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE OF THE STRONGER CORES SUGGEST A GENERAL LACK OF
   BROAD/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING VERY LARGE HAIL.
   CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 05/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34870190 34400323 34370463 35050536 35870520 36620488
               37150410 37200299 37070177 36570110 36120095 35310110
               34870190 

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Page last modified: May 04, 2015
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