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Mesoscale Discussion 499
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0499
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW/S-CNTRL/CNTRL OK...FAR NW/FAR N-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 291840Z - 291945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE PROBABLE FROM
   SW OK EWD/NEWD TO CNTRL/S-CNTRL OK AND FAR N-CNTRL TX. A TORNADO
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS SEVERE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT GOES-14 1-MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   REVEALS SCATTERED CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WITH THIS
   FILTERED SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTION TO A JUMP IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   FROM THE MID 60S AT 15Z TO LOW/MID 70S AT 18Z ALONG THE RED RIVER.
   DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE
   CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE LOW
   ABOUT 50 MI SSE OF CDS WITH A WARM FROM EXTENDING NEWD TOWARDS CHK
   AND THEN EWD TO ADR AND SEWD TOWARDS DEQ IN SE OK /DEMARCATED FAIRLY
   WELL BY THE 65 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM/. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS A
   CONVERGENT WIND FIELD AND A MORE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
   JUST S OF AXS NEWD TO BVO.

   OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...AND LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT...WILL DEPEND
   LARGELY ON HOW THE SURFACE PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE
   NRN BOUND TO MOISTURE ADVECTION...EFFECTIVELY BECOMING THE WARM
   FRONT AS SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF
   LOGAN COUNTY.

   CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER SW OK WITH
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS
   CONTINUES EWD. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER
   FROM SW OK IS 2000 J PER KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT.
   SOME BACKING IS NOTED AROUND 3 KM ON THE FDR AND TLX VAD PROFILES
   BUT BACKED SURFACE WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1 KM SRH OVER 100
   M2/S2. THIS THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SVR HAZARDS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO
   COVER THIS THREAT.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34429944 35079844 35549780 35489690 35079589 34739560
               34319552 33919564 33589595 33459648 33569727 33929830
               33979919 34429944 

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Page last modified: April 29, 2016
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