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Mesoscale Discussion 499
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0499
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY / WRN SD / SERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 052048Z - 052145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD
   OVER CNTRL WY WITHIN A DRY...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. THIS
   DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN...
   ALONG WITH PERHAPS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY
   OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR CASPER AS OF 20Z.

   LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY
   EVOLVE FROM THIS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY 22-23Z OVER ERN WY AS THE
   UPDRAFTS ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST...UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE MLCAPE
   MAY APPROACH 500-600 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLY/SELY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO WLY AT 50 KT IN THE MIDLEVELS...YIELDING
   MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD OWING
   TO A DEEP...WELL-MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS
   ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN ACQUIRE UPDRAFT
   ROTATION. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED GIVEN THE ISOLATED
   NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   ..MEAD/HART.. 05/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   43210515 45390569 45940546 45920394 45030279 43840258
               42960351 42730439 43210515 

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