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Mesoscale Discussion 500
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0500
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL/NERN KS...NWRN MO...FAR SERN
   NE...AND FAR SWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 041956Z - 042200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...1930Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY/WSR-88D MOSAIC DISPLAY
   BUILDING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF SW KS...WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN
   INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S DUE TO AMPLE INSOLATION. FARTHER
   NORTHEAST...A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED AROUND
   SLN AND POINTS NE. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
   FOSTERED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS WELL AS
   AN MCV LIFTING N/NE INTO NEBRASKA. AS HEATING CONTINUES THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AND SFC CONVERGENCE IS AIDED BY A TROUGH/FRONT STRETCHING
   FROM W-CNTRL/SW KS NE TOWARDS THE MO VALLEY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
   TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
   ASCENT. WHILE BACKGROUND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS FAIRLY MEAGER...SOME
   ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT...WHERE BACKED FLOW WILL
   OFFER AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. IN COMBINATION
   WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...RESULTING FROM A REMNANT
   PLUME OF FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ANY AREAS OF ENHANCED
   SHEAR SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN MORE VIGOROUS/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. FURTHERMORE...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
   WILL SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   ACROSS ERN KS/NWRN MO WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
   FOR STORMS IN THIS AREA. AS SUCH...WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
   NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 05/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38959497 38089728 37659971 37790150 38890141 39609856
               40319702 41009562 41059464 40419388 38959497 

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Page last modified: May 04, 2015
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