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Mesoscale Discussion 500
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0500
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0631 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL AND SE MONTANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 052331Z - 060200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLD STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS
   LOCALLY DMGG WIND MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SE MT THROUGH MID-EVE.
   LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT A WW IS
   NOT WARRANTED.

   DISCUSSION...A STRONG TSTM HAS DEVELOPED NEAR BILLINGS IN S CNTRL MT
   IN THE PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ATTM
   FARTHER W OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEIGHBORING STILLWATER AND
   SWEET GRASS COUNTIES...ATOP TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY LEAD
   STORM STORM. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FOSTERED BY SFC HEATING IN LIGHT
   /10 KT/...1 KM-DEEP ESELY LOW-LVL UPSLOPE FLOW.

   WITH THE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
   ALOFT...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK. SOME INCREASE IN
   FORCING WILL...HOWEVER...OCCUR A BIT LATER THIS EVE AS A JET
   ENTRANCE REGION DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLNS IN RESPONSE TO
   AMPLIFICATION OF NRN PLNS UPR RIDGE.

   MODEST MOISTURE /AVERAGE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S F WITH PW
   AROUND .75 INCH/ WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. BUT COMBINATION OF
   STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND 30-40 KT WSWLY WINDS
   IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER COULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF
   SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND. STORM INTENSITY SHOULD
   DIMINISH WITH DIURNAL COOLING LATER THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD EWD INTO ADJACENT PARTS
   OF WRN ND AND NW SD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

   ..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 05/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   45120776 45200951 45660994 46570687 46860423 45790439
               45360557 45120776 

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Page last modified: May 06, 2014
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