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Mesoscale Discussion 501
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0501
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...FAR W TX...TX SOUTH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 128...

   VALID 042027Z - 042200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 128
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW
   128...WITH SOME LIMITED THREAT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE TX SOUTH
   PLAINS.

   DISCUSSION...AS 2015Z...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WERE
   ONGOING ACROSS WW 128...WITH A FEW CELLS DISPLAYING SUPERCELLULAR
   CHARACTERISTICS. LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT...BUT SLOW STORM MOTION WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
   OCCASIONAL SURGING OUTFLOW AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO
   THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL...BUT
   RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THIS THREAT IN THE SHORT
   TERM. THE GREATEST RELATIVE TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE
   DEVELOPING SUPERCELL NORTH OF MARFA NEAR THE JEFF DAVIS/REEVES
   COUNTY BORDER...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE...BUT THIS
   CELL MAY MOVE INTO TORNADO WATCH 129 SHORTLY.  

   FURTHER EAST...SEVERE TSTMS JUST N OF HOBBS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS THE
   TX SOUTH PLAINS...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND. AT THIS TIME...WW ISSUANCE ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
   EAST OF WW 128 IS UNLIKELY DUE TO AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..DEAN/HART.. 05/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   30410390 30630498 30850538 31160576 31320594 31380600
               32000637 33650636 34250591 34550525 34570472 34570373
               34320215 32030249 31940404 30410379 30410390 30410390 

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Page last modified: May 04, 2015
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