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Mesoscale Discussion 501
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0501
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0908 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...FAR NERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 060208Z - 060445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   INTO EARLY TUE.

   DISCUSSION...AMIDST A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
   GRADIENT...ROBUST WAA NE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT OVER
   SWRN NC HAS AIDED IN A COUPLE OF STORMS FORMING NEAR WAKEFIELD VA.
   STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN PLAN-VIEW OF
   VWP DATA...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO A MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING
   THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. 

   MODIFYING 00Z RNK RAOB FOR POTENTIAL SATURATION NEAR 700 MB SUGGESTS
   MUCAPE MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITHIN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
   AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM. STRONG NWLYS /AOA 50 KT/ WITHIN THE
   CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT FAST STORM MOTIONS AND MULTICELL
   CLUSTERING CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   VEER OVERNIGHT AND CROSS-GRADIENT FLOW SUBSIDES...ANY SEVERE RISK
   SHOULD DIMINISH.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 05/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37007593 36147564 35917571 36077654 37177825 37677854
               37927842 37947784 37007593 

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Page last modified: May 06, 2014
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