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Mesoscale Discussion 502
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0502
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 129...

   VALID 042046Z - 042145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 129 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 129...WITH THE GREATEST
   SHORT-TERM THREAT ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE SUPERCELL NEAR THE JEFF DAVIS/REEVES COUNTY
   BORDER WILL LIKELY BE THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM THREAT ACROSS WW 129.
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A FAVORABLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE...AND A WEAK
   CONFLUENCE ZONE EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS CELL
   MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT. 

   ADDITIONAL STORM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SLOWLY SPREADS EWD AHEAD OF A
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY
   INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH
   WILL ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT
   CAN BE MAINTAINED.

   ..DEAN.. 05/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...

   LAT...LON   28960316 28970327 29040343 29190370 29190372 29220377
               29250379 31110409 31120409 31620405 32000401 32080305
               32080287 32080280 32080280 31630247 31000239 30660232
               30360222 30130217 29830216 28990312 28960316 28960316
               28960316 

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Page last modified: May 04, 2015
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