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Mesoscale Discussion 504
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0504
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX AND NORTHWESTERN LA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...

   VALID 292242Z - 300015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 125 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG
   WINDS CONTINUES IN WATCH 125...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
   SECTIONS OF THE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A LARGE AREA
   OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WATCH 125...SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
   OF THE WATCH HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY FREE OF PRECIPITATION. AS
   SUCH...AMPLE BUOYANCY AND CONSIDERABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AS WELL AS
   LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT/ ARE PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT
   FAVORABLE FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. CONTINUED WARM-AIR ADVECTION HAS
   ENCOURAGED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE HP SUPERCELL OVER PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHEASTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY...EMBEDDED IN A LARGER CLUSTER.
   POLARIMETRIC DATA...MRMS MESH...AND OVERALL REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE
   SUGGEST GIANT HAIL /I.E. AT LEAST 2-INCH DIAMETER/ LIKELY OCCURRED
   WITHIN THE LAST 30-45 MINUTES. WHILE THE CELL HAS SINCE WEAKENED
   SOME...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
   WATCH 125 THIS EVENING...AS FURTHER MID/LOW-LEVEL ROTATION IS LIKELY
   WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS.

   ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
   IS LIKELY SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE...A NORTHWARD-PROGRESSING BOUNDARY
   NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ROTATION IN ANY
   SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...ENCOURAGING A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT HERE.

   ..PICCA.. 04/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31579474 31699533 32629566 34399504 34409363 34039169
               32719189 32349221 32029397 31579474 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2016
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