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Mesoscale Discussion 505
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0505
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0616 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK AND ADJACENT N CNTRL THROUGH
   NORTHEASTERN TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 124...126...

   VALID 292316Z - 300045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 124...126...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED NORTH OF
   TORNADO WATCH 126...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THIS
   POSSIBILITY.  OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
   APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE
   NORTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...SOUTHWARD INTO AREAS NEAR
   OR JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING VIGOROUS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH AT
   LEAST A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...STILL APPEARS TO BE
   MAINTAINING STRENGTH AS IT ADVANCES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE
   35 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
   SUPPORTED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL WAVE...ENHANCED BY
   FORCING WITH AN INITIAL IMPULSE PIVOTING  AROUND THE EASTERN
   PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  HOWEVER
   THIS FORCING MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY...AND WITH CONVECTION SOON
   TO SPREAD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   STABILIZED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
   LONGER IT WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH.

   AT LEAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT ANOTHER IMPULSE
   PIVOTING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MAY HELP FOCUS FORCING FOR
   INCREASING/INTENSIFYING NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE VICINITY OF
   THE RED RIVER INTO AREAS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
   METROPLEX THROUGH 00-02Z.  THIS APPEARS SUPPORTED BY TRENDS IN
   LATEST VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY.  JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...A
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
   SHEAR BENEATH 50-60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.  SOME FURTHER
   STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN
   ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR.. 04/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35679697 36329583 36369454 35069451 33299557 32959639
               32899723 33629779 35679697 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2016
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