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Mesoscale Discussion 506
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...FAR NW MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 130...

   VALID 042330Z - 050100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 130
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
   WW 130 WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
   FLOODING.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WAVY...CONVECTIVELY
   MODIFIED STATIONARY FRONT FROM N OF STJ SWWD TO N OF DDC. MOST OF
   THE TSTM ACTIVITY IS ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS RATHER ANEMIC WITH REGIONAL VAD
   PROFILES SAMPLING 6000M WINDS OF LESS THAN 30 KT. IN
   CONTRAST...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
   RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. WHILE SOME TRANSIENT STORM
   ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE...SEVERE THREAT WILL MORE LIKELY BE A
   RESULT OF STORM MERGERS AND/OR PRECIPITATION LOADING. INITIAL LINE
   OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS BEFORE A SECONDARY LINE FORMS FARTHER N AS PARCELS ARE LIFTED
   ISENTROPICALLY TO HIGHER LFC. 

   OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP -- I.E. ALIGNMENT OF THE MOIST AXIS AND LLJ
   IN THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT -- APPEARS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
   PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING /REFER TO
   EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION FROM WPC/.

   ..MOSIER.. 05/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   39349952 39859883 41039459 40719344 39029384 37869902
               39349952 

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Page last modified: May 05, 2015
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