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Mesoscale Discussion 506
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0807 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 124...

   VALID 300107Z - 300230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 124 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
   MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...ROUGHLY CENTERED
   ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND DALLAS/FORT WORTH.  A
   NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 124
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE BASE OF NEGATIVELY
   TILTED UPPER TROUGHING NOW SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...AND A ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY...LIKELY IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
   THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
   METROPLEX.  SUSTAINED DISCRETE STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING TO THE
   WEST/AND NORTHWEST OF THE WACO/TEMPLE AREAS...AND STORMS ARE
   INITIATING AS INHIBITION WEAKENS SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
   ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.

   IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-3000+
   J/KG...FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION AND
   ORGANIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME...ACROSS AND
   NORTH OF THE SAN ANTONIO AREA INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX. 
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED ACROSS THIS
   REGION...ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET.  AN UPSCALE
   GROWING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. 
   IF THIS OCCURS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL INCREASE.  IN
   THE MEANTIME...A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE
   CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.

   ..KERR.. 04/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29880040 30230016 30569955 31459885 32219785 31949633
               30369651 29189814 29260009 29880040 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2016
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