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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN PARTS OF N TX / ERN TX PANHANDLE / WRN OK /
SWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163...
VALID 180053Z - 180200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163
CONTINUES.
STORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT
TO DRYLINE/OCCLUDED FRONT WHERE BEST RESERVOIR OF
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE RESIDES. PRIOR TO STORMS WEAKENING DUE IN
LARGE PART TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WELL DEFINED
DRYLINE/OCCLUDED FRONT ARCING NW-SE FROM SERN CO TO THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS OF NWRN TX WITH WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION ACROSS N-CNTRL TX SURGING W AND MERGING WITH LARGER-SCALE
FEATURE OVER PARTS OF TX. DESPITE MODEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG/ ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS
WITHIN A NARROW ZONE ALONG AND JUST E OF BOUNDARY...STRONG 0-6 KM IN
EXCESS OF 75 KTS SAMPLED BY 00Z AMA RAOB WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS IN THE NEAR TERM AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED ERN NM/NWRN TX S/W TROUGH CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD INSTABILITY AXIS. AS SUCH...EXPECTING SEVERE THREAT TO
MAINLY CONSIST OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL THE NEXT HR OR TWO BEFORE
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING CINH LEAD TO A MORE
SUBDUED THREAT.
..SMITH.. 04/18/2009
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37910221 38470322 38460388 38550445 38710455 38880443
39060335 38610230 38140208 37910221
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