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Mesoscale Discussion 506
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB...FAR SERN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 070552Z - 070815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL EXIST THROUGH THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THE COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION OF SUCH ACTIVITY
   IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES 994-MB LOW 40 NW LIC WITH WAVY
   QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL KS. SFC TROUGH
   IS DRAWN NWWD FROM THE LOW AT THE INTERFACE OF THE FRONT RANGE AND
   THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. MODIFIED REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS
   AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT A CHANNEL OF LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING
   RATIOS OF 7-8 G/KG CURLS AROUND THE NRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SFC
   CYCLONE BENEATH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5-9.5 C/KM. THIS IS
   GENERATING MUCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG FOR PARCELS ROOTED ATOP THE
   NWD-SLOPING FRONTAL SFC...BENEATH WHICH STATIC STABILITY IS
   BOLSTERED BY NOCTURNAL SFC DIABATIC COOLING.

   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND RELATED ASCENT WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE
   OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN/SW STATES PER
   MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. AS SUCH...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC CYCLONE
   WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED TO SUSTAIN THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
   REGIME FLOW N OF THE FRONT SAMPLED BY LNX/CYS VWPS. THIS WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FURTHERMORE...THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF
   MID-LEVEL FLOW SURMOUNTING LOW-LEVEL ELY/S WILL OFFER SUFFICIENT
   DEEP SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES INCLUDING
   POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL. A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER DEEP ASCENT REMOVED
   WELL TO THE W OF THE REGION...THE COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN LIMITED.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 05/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41580105 40740142 40160308 39980464 40540512 41320416
               41930201 41580105 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2014
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