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Mesoscale Discussion 507
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN WISCONSIN INTO WRN LOWER
   MICHIGAN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 071521Z - 071645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WHILE
   TENDING TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
   WISCONSIN..LAKE MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 17-19Z. 
   THIS MAY CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST
   OF MADISON WI APPEARS TO BE COINCIDING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A
   WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AROUND THE CREST OF AMPLIFIED LARGER SCALE
   MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION.  THIS ACTIVITY ALSO
   APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF NORTHEASTWARD
   ADVECTING WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
   AIR...WHICH THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS MAY REACH AREAS NORTH
   AND EAST OF OSHKOSH WI AND MUSKEGON MI BY 18-19Z.

   HOW LONG STORMS MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR. 
   CONVECTION IS BASED ABOVE A DEEP COOL AND STABLE SURFACE BASED
   LAYER...WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE WARM FRONT. 
   HOWEVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE CAPE
   FOR PARCELS ROOTED IN THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER...AND STRONG CLOUD
   BEARING LAYER SHEAR MAY CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE  THE RISK FOR
   AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS THROUGH EARLY
   AFTERNOON.

   ..KERR/HART.. 05/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   44358967 44808933 45028827 44298591 43628495 42928618
               43168759 43598942 44358967 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2014
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