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Mesoscale Discussion 508
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0508
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127...128...

   VALID 300442Z - 300615Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   127...128...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
   TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE 06-09Z TIME
   FRAME...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE ARKLATEX /AND THE SHREVEPORT
   AREA/.  AREAS EAST OF WATCH 128 WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE
   POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   CONTINUES...ROUGHLY CENTERED ACROSS OR JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
   ARKLATEX REGION.  THIS APPEARS GENERALLY FOCUSED BENEATH STRONGEST
   HIGH LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WITHIN A ZONE OF BROAD UPPER DIFLUENCE
   EXTENDING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  A
   BROAD BELT OF 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ACROSS UPPER TEXAS AND
   LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU IS ALSO ENHANCING
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS
   MAY PERSIST ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE 06-08Z TIME
   FRAME.

   SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF A BOUNDARY GENERATED
   BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY LARGE AND CLOCKWISE
   CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS AND SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE
   SHREVEPORT AREA.  THIS HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE
   MORE DISCRETE STRONGER CORES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX DURING THE PAST
   HOUR OR TWO.

   AS THESE CELLS TRACK NORTHWARD ABOVE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
   BORDER...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH. 
   HOWEVER...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS
   NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN MID 70S AND
   DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES...OR AT LEAST
   LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE.  AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
   SHIFTS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT...THIS PROBABLY WILL
   GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE SHREVEPORT AREA THROUGH 07-09Z.

   ..KERR.. 04/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32049267 32249194 33459205 33749337 33719431 32869543
               32049472 31989377 32049267 

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