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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0836 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SWRN OK...PORTIONS NWRN TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 116...
VALID 180136Z - 180300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 116 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES...WITH BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/MESOVORTICES INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH 04Z.
DISCUSSION...AT 01Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM
JUST W OF BVO SWWD TO NEAR OKC...WHERE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MASKED
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WHICH EXTENDS SWWD FROM OKC INTO NWRN TX
APPROX 45 S LTS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A MODERATE
TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPES RANGING
FROM 1000 J/KG OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW TO NEAR 2500 J/JG OVER NWRN
TX. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER SRN/SWRN PORTIONS OF WW...LIKELY EVOLVING
INTO A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE OVER TIME AS COLD OUTFLOWS MERGE.
EFFECTIVE SRH HAS INCREASED TO 300-350 M2/S2...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH MORE DISCRETE STORMS OVER SWRN
OK/NWRN TX AND FOR EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS.
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH SUPERCELL TSTMS GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER SWRN OK/ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NWRN TX.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
SEVERE HAIL GIVEN AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 04/18/2013
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 36979753 37009477 36109452 33979670 33489830 33379959
33519991 36979753
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