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Mesoscale Discussion 508
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0508
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO...WRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 071759Z - 072000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
   PROBABLE ACROSS THE REGION BY 20-21Z.  THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
   WEATHER WATCH IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY
   ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE...WEST AND NORTH OF DENVER...INTO THE
   MEDICINE BOW MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING.  OROGRAPHIC FORCING
   FOR ASCENT PROBABLY IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT AND INCREASING
   DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHING OVER
   THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU.  

   ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS TO THE
   EAST DOES NOT YET APPEAR PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS
   SUBSTANTIVE MODIFICATION BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z.  AS SURFACE/NEAR
   SURFACE WINDS TURN FROM A NORTHERLY TO INCREASINGLY EASTERLY
   COMPONENT...MOISTURE NOW PRESENT SHOULD AT LEAST BE MAINTAINED...IF
   NOT SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
   WARM WITH FURTHER INSOLATION BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

   A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE...NEAR/NORTH OF DENVER THROUGH
   NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO THE NORTH PLATTE AREA OF WEST CENTRAL
   NEBRASKA...SEEMS THE LIKELY FOCUS FOR THE MOST INTENSE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS
   LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS OR A BRIEF TORNADO.

   ..KERR/HART.. 05/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42130480 41770351 41530246 41940163 41440023 39630181
               39380311 39700437 40260490 42180572 42130480 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2014
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