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Mesoscale Discussion 509
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1005 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF WRN TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 131...

   VALID 050305Z - 050500Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
   NRN PORTIONS OF THE WW ATTM.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE SELY LOW-LEVEL
   INFLOW PERSISTING INTO ONGOING SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS.  THE TWO
   STRONGEST CELLS -- ONE OVER WARD AND THE OTHER OVER ERN PECOS CO --
   APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.  ANOTHER STORM
   APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MARTIN CO -- AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE
   LARGE HAIL.

   ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS AN AXIS OF ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
   CAPE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH QG FORCING INCREASING --
   EVIDENT IN WEAK CELLULAR INCREASE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SERN NM -- AS
   A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING SWRN
   U.S. UPPER SYSTEM...DEVELOPMENT OF NEW/ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS
   REMAINS POSSIBLE.

   ..GOSS.. 05/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30550388 31900391 32350285 32470180 31500137 29200076
               29790152 29870236 29730267 30050337 30550388 

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Page last modified: May 05, 2015
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