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Mesoscale Discussion 509
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK...NW TX...TX ROLLING PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 071854Z - 072000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE FROM SW OK SWWD INTO TX
   ROLLING PLAINS. ONCE INITIATION OCCURS...SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
   WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING AS THE MAIN THREATS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS
   POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST PAST 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A DOUBLE DRYLINE STRUCTURE
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE PRIMARY DRYLINE IS GENERALLY DEMARCATED
   BY THE 60 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM WITH THE SECONDARY DRYLINE DEMARCATED
   BY THE 45 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM. THERE WAS AN ATTEMPT AT CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION  ALONG THE PRIMARY DRYLINE IN THROCKMORTON COUNTY TX.
   THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE WEAKENED...SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT IN
   THAT AREA IS NOT YET SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. DEEPENING CU
   IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF BOTH DRYLINES WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
   ALONG EITHER THIS AFTERNOON.

   MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED
   PARCEL FROM SW OK SWWD THROUGH THE TX ROLLING PLAINS. SBCAPE IS
   ESTIMATED FROM 1500 TO 3000 J PER KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   VALUES FROM 30 TO 35 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
   SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. HAIL OVER
   2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING
   WINDS IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH-BASED CHARACTER OF THE
   INITIAL CONVECTION. LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
   WITH BOTH THE LEFT AND RIGHT MOVERS CAPABLE OF SVR. TORNADO THREAT
   APPEARS LOW INITIALLY. WITH THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS PERSIST
   PAST 00Z AS OVERALL SHEAR INCREASES BEFORE NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 05/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31199996 31440040 32640130 33800026 34809962 35319936
               35519869 35269787 34549781 34109797 33309821 31459917
               31199996 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2014
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