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Mesoscale Discussion 509
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127...

   VALID 300646Z - 300745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 08Z
   WW EXPIRATION. OVERALL RISK MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A REPLACEMENT
   WW...BUT A LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION COULD BE PERFORMED.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CELLS HAVE PERSISTED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF
   LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW DRAPED ACROSS MAVERICK TO BEXAR COUNTY.
   CONVECTION AT PRESENT MAY BE PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...BUT HAS THUS FAR
   STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY TO POTENTIALLY BEING SEVERE. WHILE THIS
   ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND PERHAPS
   INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX ACROSS WEST TX...MOST
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MID-LEVEL LOBE WILL DECAY THROUGH 12Z. WITH
   WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS
   CONVECTION WILL SUSTAIN AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. OVERALL SETUP MAY
   ONLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29400094 29939952 30289849 30319804 30119776 29769774
               29409833 29149913 28959983 28890051 29400094 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2016
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